CHELSEA entertain West Ham on Monday night in the Premier League. Tom Griffin (@_journotom) shares his analysis.
Chelsea vs West Ham | Monday 21st December 2020, 20:00 | Sky Sports
Chelsea host West Ham on Monday evening looking to propel themselves back into contention for the Champions League spots, while the visitors perhaps unsurprisingly share similar ambitions.
The Premier League’s unpredictability is evident in the formation of the table, but West Ham are a credit to their high position and in a fixture against an out-of-sorts Chelsea, the Hammers will be hoping to close that five-point gap between them and the top four.
The hosts arrive at this fixture having tasted back-to-back defeats for the first time this season and Frank Lampard will want to see whether his players possess the powers of recovery.
Chelsea are third on the list for Expected Goals (xG) and in their last home match against Leeds they recorded their highest xG output of the season (4.89). This number is expected to be dramatically lower against a West Ham side who rarely provide the opposition with an easy route to goal. In fact, their highest xG Against was 2.39 in a home victory over Aston Villa.
Chelsea like to dominate large spells of possession, knocking the ball around patiently until an opening has been fashioned. West Ham are resolute defensively and could force the hosts into taking pop shots from range. Chelsea on average register 14 shots per game, while West Ham concede 10 shots per game.
In their 3-3 draw with Tottenham earlier on in this season, West Ham weren’t afraid to attack the opposition goal and managed to register 13 shots. Chelsea notoriously concede chances at home through playing a high line and committing their full backs up the field, while West Ham are comfortable with playing on the counter-attack.
The Team Total Shots Market with Sky Bet is a potential avenue of success. West Ham have impressed against the big teams this season and boast an average of 13 shots per game themselves. You wouldn’t back against them registering a similar number here, therefore I like the look of West Ham to have 10+ shots at 5/6.
Jarrod Bowen is West Ham’s main source of goals (4G, 2A) so if anyone is most likely to pose a threat, it’s him. Bowen has registered 32 shots on goal so far and with Ben Chilwell bombing forward down the left side, this could leave space for Bowen to exploit.
I like the look of Bowen to take 3+ shots at 6/5 with Sky Bet, while West Ham’s set piece taker Aaron Cresswell represents good value at 6/1 to register two shots.
The two teams on show are near the top of the fair play table with 16 yellow cards apiece. But in a closely fought tussle with a lot riding on the fixture, you’d expect to see some tackles flying in.
The referee for the fixture is Chris Kavanaugh and he doesn’t hesitate to pull out his yellow cards having produced 27 yellow cards in 8 Premier League fixtures.
The only occasions Chelsea failed to score at home was when they were reduced to 10 men against Liverpool and in their derby match against Spurs, while West Ham are yet to blank on their travels. Using the Bet365 Bet Builder tool, you can get Both Teams To Score and 1+ card in the match for West Ham at a generous 1/1.
My value pick from Sky Bet’s Request-A-Bet list is: Over 1.5 Goals, Giroud, Mount & Haller 1+ shots on target each, 3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team at 9/1.
Best Bets
Chelsea vs West Ham – West Ham 10+ shots (5/6 SkyBet)
Chelsea vs West Ham – Jarrod Bowen 3+ shots (6/5 SkyBet)
Chelsea vs West Ham – Both Teams To Score and Both Teams Over 0 Cards (1/1 Bet365)
Chelsea vs West Ham – Over 1.5 Goals, Giroud, Mount & Haller 1+ shots on target each, 3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points (9/1 SkyBet)
