ALEX JONES (@AlexJ0nes9) analyses the odds as Newcastle entertain Fulham in the Premier League on Saturday night.
Newcastle vs Fulham | Saturday 19th December 2020, 20:00 | Sky Sports
Saturday evening sees a revitalised Fulham travel to the north east to face Newcastle. Fulham have picked up two home draws in recent game weeks against Liverpool and Brighton respectively whilst Newcastle come into this one off the back of a hammering at Leeds.
Facing Leeds in the middle of this packed schedule is the last thing Steve Bruce’s side needed. They were given the run around, facing 25 shots and conceding five goals. With both teams only having three days to recover, we could see a game lacking high tempo and the winter schedule seeping into the players legs.
Fulham, on the other hand, have really picked up their form in recent weeks. They have avoided defeat in three of their last four, with that defeat coming at The Etihad against the relentless Manchester City.
They were excellent against the champions last Sunday and deservedly got a point. They should fancy their chances travelling to Newcastle, given the underlying data suggest Fulham are performing well away from Craven Cottage.
Fulham sit on four away points this term, with four losses in six, but the metrics suggest they should have seven points to their name from away games. Their xG average is at 1.32 in away games, significantly higher than the likes of Chelsea, Arsenal and Southampton.
I was hoping to get a better price on Fulham avoiding here, perhaps on the +1 Asian Handicap, but the odds weren’t appealing really. Instead, my strongest selection for this one at St James’ is a Bet Builder – Both Teams Over 0 Cards and Newcastle Over 3 Corners at 1/1 (Bet365).
The stats are overwhelmingly in our favour and here’s why:
- This outing sees two of the top three for most cards this season. Only Leicester have more than these two teams.
- Fulham have seen at least one yellow card in 12/13 games this season.
- The Magpies have seen one in every one of their 12 games.
- They have seen 2+ cards to their name in 9/12 matches.
Referee Graham Scott has dished out a card to each team in 15 of his 20 Premier League matches since the start of last season. That’s an 80% hit rate for these selections over a good sample size.
It is even more appealing given it has occurred in all five of his games refereed this term. He has refereed Newcastle and Fulham both once this season and given Fulham a red card and Newcastle two yellows at Crystal Palace.
Fulham have conceded 4+ corners in all but one of their away games this term, whilst Newcastle average 4.1 corners-per-game. Newcastle have taken 16 corners in their last 3 outings at home so by combining these three selections we get an even-money shot.
Following similar lines, we can get Newcastle to take the Most Corners in the match at 1/1 with Sky Bet. It is shorter at most other bookmakers and given the odds imply a 50% chance of the bet winning, it’s worth a play given the stats.
- Newcastle have won the corner count in 4/6 at home this season.
- Fulham have only won the corner count in 3/13, and 1/6 away.
- No team has taken fewer corners than Fulham (48).
Best Bets
Newcastle vs Fulham – Both Teams Over 0 Cards and Newcastle Over 3 Corners (1/1 Bet365)
Newcastle vs Fulham – Newcastle Most Corners (1/1 SkyBet)
