THE always-excellent Harley Dale (@Harleeyy) has taken a deep dive into Sunday evening's Premier League clash between Leicester and Brighton.
Leicester vs Brighton | Sunday 13th December 2020, 19:15 | Amazon
Matchweek 12 sees struggling Brighton travel to the King Power Stadium to face Leicester.
Regardless of their performances, the poor results continue for the Seagulls – winning just one of their last nine league games, whilst coming into this clash on the back of a disappointing defeat to Southampton at The Amex last Monday.
Conversely, these are exciting times to be a Foxes fan thus far, sitting nicely in fourth and coming into this game on the back of a comfortable midweek victory against AEK Athens – solidifying top spot in the Europa League group stage. Not to mention that Soyuncu, Ndidi and Ricardo are back in full training – a big boost.
Graham Potter will be encouraged with Brendan Rogers starting XI in the Europa League on Thursday, starting the likes of Ndidi, Tielemans, Barnes, Justin and Fofana – all crucial players for the Foxes who will surely be feeling the fatigue once these teams meet this Sunday. Graham Potter has an excellent chance of churning out a positive result because of this.
Although Leicester are sitting near the top of the table, their home record this season looks a little worse for wear – picking up just six points and encountering defeats against the likes of West Ham, Aston Villa and Fulham. Which suggests to me that the foxes struggle to take the initiative in these sort of matches and control the game.
Leicester are greatly known for their counter-attacking prowess with star man Jamie Vardy making constant and efficient runs in behind the defence. Therefore it is not much of a surprise to see Rogers' men fail to pick up points at home to the ‘weaker’ sides yet come out on top against the sides who dominate possession – such as Man City, Arsenal and Leeds.
Given Brighton’s possession-based style of play, I’m sure Rogers will be happy to play to their strengths by sitting back and hitting the Seagulls on the counter in phases of the match.
The way Leicester set up to counter against some teams have done them good this season, which can be seen as a contributing factor as to why 70% of their goals this season come in the second half due to opposition looking to get a foothold of the game.
On the other hand, of the 9 games Brighton have conceded this season, they have conceded in the second half in 8 of those and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar pattern here. You can get Leicester to score in the second-half at 4/7 and I’m happy to throw in Brighton to receive a card, making it a 4/5 shot on bet365. Brighton have received a card in every match so far this season so this looks like good value to me.
Another bet I like is Over 34.5 Tackles. This has landed in Leicester’s 17 of 24 matches at the King Power since the start of last season and we should see the return of Ndidi here, who averaged a monstrous 4 tackles per game last season – the second-most in the league.
Brighton are averaging over 16 tackles per game this season, the seventh-highest in the league and with players like Lamptey and March who like to dribble down the flanks, there is a lot of potential for many players on the pitch to get stuck in on Sunday. Therefore, Over 34.5 Tackles in the match at 8/11 on Boylesports is a good bet, to me.
Best Bets
Leicester vs Brighton – Leicester to score in the second-half and Brighton Over 0 Cards (4/5 Bet365)
Leicester vs Brighton – Over 34.5 tackles (8/11 Boylesports)
