ALEX JONES (@AlexJ0nes9) analyses the odds as Fulham take on Everton in the Premier League on Sunday afternoon.
Fulham vs Everton | Sunday 22nd November 2020, 12:00 | BBC
Carlo Ancelotti’s Everton travel to Craven Cottage to face newly-promoted Fulham on Sunday lunchtime, with the game being broadcasted live on BBC One. Fulham sit on just one win out of their opening eight games, with Everton matching their Expected Points (xP) data perfectly, sitting in seventh.
Fulham’s return to the top-flight was never going to be easy but Scott Parker may have expected a few more points on the board at this stage, considering they have already played a few teams who may be in and around them come the end of the season and failed to win.
Fulham’s last game before the break will have affected them massively as Ademola Lookman’s stoppage time failure from 12 yards cost them a deserved point. Lookman’s performance on Sunday, if he starts of course, will be a massive test of his character and I do wonder whether atoning for this error combined with the fact he is facing the team who saw him as surplus to requirements, may see him turn up.
With this in mind, I will back him to have an attempt on-target, at 5/6 with Paddy Power. It is a bet that has landed in all four of his Premier League starts for Fulham, with the young Englishman having 14 shots in his four starts, hitting six shots on target in this period.
This bet stood out as it is significantly shorter with most other bookmakers, around 8/13. He is plying his trade down the left flank and being right footed and with an eye for goal, he often cuts inside to try and get a shot away. I couldn’t put anyone off the 15/8 for three or more shots with Paddy Power either, given it has landed in both his home league starts.
The Toffees had a mixed record against promoted teams last season, losing to each of the three promoted sides once. They did win two of their three away matches though, against Sheffield United and Norwich, but lost at Aston Villa. Interestingly, in these six games, only one out of the six saw Both Teams To Score land.
The positives ahead of their trip to Craven Cottage is the return of their main man Richarlison. The Toffees have an awful record when without their Brazilian left-winger and his return will not only increase their goalscoring chances but also the way they manage the game, with him being crucial to the way they play, with 42% of Everton’s play coming down the left. He was subject to a red card challenge from Manchester United’s Edinson Cavani in midweek and forced off for Brazil, but I think he’ll be passed fit to play.
Despite not putting a foot wrong in their opening four games this season, winning all four, Everton are now winless in four and have lost their last three. Considering Everton have received a whopping 12 yellow cards and two reds in their last four, this perhaps suggest frustration in the team when in losing positions.
In the four games they won, they only received three yellow in all of them, meaning 82% of their cards this term have been in games they haven’t won. Of course, this is a small sample size, but may be telling of the mood in the Everton dressing room. Perhaps the international break came at the right time for Ancelotti’s men.
Interestingly, Everton’s opponents have taken five or more corner kicks in 19 of their last 21 games. Fulham have hit this mark in four of their eight games, being one off in their recent home game against Palace. This is more about the statistics regarding Everton’s corners conceded numbers and I make the 11/10 with SkyBet a decent play given its odds-on elsewhere.
It’s quite a tight pitch at Craven Cottage and Fulham actually average the most dribbles per 90 minutes in the league with 14.9. With the onus on Fulham to attack, and with tricky wingers like Lookman and Cordova-Reid, corners should occur for the Cottagers.
Finally, Michael Keane to score first is 40/1 with Bet365. It’s a longshot, but he has the fourth best xG in the Everton side with 0.7, and Everton actually rank third for shots from dead ball situations, only behind Aston Villa and West Ham. Keane has already scored against West Brom and Liverpool this season and has notched a few headers from corners in the past.
Best Bets
Fulham vs Everton – Ademola Lookman 1+ Shot-on-Target (5/6 Paddy Power)
Fulham vs Everton – Ademola Lookman 3+ Shots (15/8 Paddy Power)
Fulham vs Everton – Fulham 5+ Corners (11/10 SkyBet)
Fulham vs Everton – Michael Keane to score first (40/1 Bet365)
