ALEX JONES (@AlexJ0nes9) analyses the odds as Leicester take on Wolves in the Premier League on Sunday afternoon.
Leicester vs Wolves | Sunday 8th November 2020, 12:00 | Sky Sports
To kick-off Sky Sports’ Super Sunday, we have Leicester welcoming Wolves to the King Power. The two sides played out two drab 0-0 draws last campaign so here’s hoping that history doesn’t repeat itself.
It’s been an above average start for both of these teams, with Leicester sitting second behind defending champions Liverpool (prior to Friday night), and Wolves unbeaten in their last four.
Despite winning all four of their away games so far this season, Leicester’s home form has been the opposite, with no triumph since their opening home match against Burnley. They have failed to score in their last two Premier League matches at the KP, against West Ham and Aston Villa respectively.
It’s an intriguing match-up, especially given the prospect of two back-threes going head-to-head.
Key stats
Leicester:
- Leicester have scored the most penalties so far this season (6), which is double that of three teams who have scored three.
- 63% of Leicester’s total shots have come from inside the 18-yard box, only behind Leeds (67%).
- Have collected at least one booking in all but one of their 11 matches this term.
- Games involving The Foxes have seen an average of 4.3 cards per game.
- Fouled on average 11.9 times per game, and average 14.4 free kicks per game (this includes offsides by opposition).
Wolves:
- 42% of Wolves’ play comes down the right-flank, the most in the division, despite Adama Traore only starting three games this season.
- 51% of Wolves’ shots come from outside the box, the most in the Premier League.
- Average 13.3 dribbles per game, the third most in the league.
- Wolves foul their opponent 10.7 times per game on average.
- The visitors are the most disciplined team so far this season, collecting only four yellow cards.
Referee Anthony Taylor takes charge on Sunday who has dished out 14 yellow cards and 1 red in his five games so far this campaign. Taylor, who has now been officiating in the topflight for over a decade, averaged 3.81 yellows per game last season.
Analysis
I’m expecting Leicester to see plenty of the ball and having to remain patient to get through this resolute Wolves defence. The Foxes are favourites for this one and will be looking to overcome their recent rut at the King Power.
Leicester average the fourth most possession at home in the league this season, with 58.8% of the ball, whilst Wolves tend to sit back and devastate opponents on the counterattack away from home. We saw such a display at Leeds the other week where they punished them, despite Leeds having 68% possession.
This leads me to my first bet which will be Leicester to attempt over 513.5 passes at 3/4 with Boylesports. The Foxes have hit this in two of their three home games this season, as their approach at home is distant to their set up away from home. They managed 684 passes against West Ham a couple of weeks back.
To add more statistics on side, it has landed in four out of seven Wolves matches this campaign. Leicester attempted 665 passes in this exact fixture last year.
Following similar lines, James Justin is priced at 5/6 to attempt Over 47.5 Passes with Bet365. Team news suggests Jonny Evans and Caglar Soyuncu are still out, meaning Justin has filled in at centre half alongside Wesley Fofana and Christian Fuchs.
Leicester were excellent at Elland Road on Monday night and Rodgers should stick with the same defence here. Whilst Justin has only beaten this line in two of his games this season, these have predominantly been at wing back and not as one of the three centre defenders.
Fabian Schar attempted 55 at Molineux a few weeks ago. Given I’m expecting Wolves to allow Leicester’s defence to pass the ball, I fancy him to surpass the 47.5 line. I’m waiting until team news to place; in case he doesn’t start where expected.
A Bet Builder I’m placing is: Over 0 Cards for Leicester and Over 12.5 Free-Kicks for Leicester at 11/10 (Bet365). Leicester have received 1+ yellow card in 10/11 in all competitions but take 14.4 free kicks per-game on average. Taylor loves blowing his whistle and dishing out the cards, but given Wolves have only four cards this season, I’m playing it safer by backing a Leicester card.
Barnes to bag
I will also add in Harvey Barnes to score anytime. I was surprised we could get 19/5 with 888 on the Englishmen bagging, considering it is 3/1 elsewhere it may be a value price. He scored the other night at Elland Road, where he had three shots on target recording an xG of 0.54.
Barnes has started this season very sharply and looks a real threat linking up with Jamie Vardy. Two or more goals is available at 33/1 at Sky Bet for anyone wanting a complete longshot.
Best Bets
Leicester vs Wolves – Leicester Over 513.5 Passes (3/4 Boylesports)
Leicester vs Wolves – James Justin Over 47.5 Passes (5/6 Bet365)
Leicester vs Wolves – Over 0 Leicester Cards and Over 12.5 Leicester Free-Kicks (11/10 Bet365)
Leicester vs Wolves – Harvey Barnes to score anytime (19/5 888)
