THE Champions League continues on Tuesday night and we asked Tom Love (@TomLove_18) to analyse the semi-final encounter between RB Leipzig and PSG.
RB Leipzig vs PSG | Tuesday 18th August 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
The ‘weak’ side of the draw was always going to be interesting, and in all honestly, I thought it would be these two who would’ve been knocked out, but here we are. It’s another tantalising encounter for our delight and delectation though and how it will play out tactically will be of great intrigue.
The narrative of this tie will surround the two German coaches, Thomas Tuchel and Julian Nagelsmann. Incredibly, it was Tuchel who first got Nagelsmann into the management side of the game when he was a coach at Augsburg’s second team and Nagelsmann was a player out injured. Tuchel sent him out on some scouting missions and the rest is history.
Leipzig were extremely proactive in their meeting with a defensive Atletico Madrid side and were fully deserving of their win. It’s often been the case in the Bundesliga that Die Roten Bullen struggle to break teams down, or at least do enough to win the match.
RB drew a lot of home games in the league and that was ultimately their downfall in falling away from Bayern Munich in the second half of the season. Their away record was outstanding though and that could be down to the home team feeling the need to come out and play, leaving space for them to exploit. They’ll be hoping that PSG do just that.
Will they though? Well Tuchel has opted for three defensive midfielders of late with Ander Herrera, Idrissa Gueye and Marquinhos given free license for the front three of Neymar, Mauro Icardi and Kylian Mbappe to do what they do best. It would not be a surprise to see Leipzig try target the wide areas too and get crosses into Youssef Poulsen and late arrivals of Dani Olmo and Marcel Sabitzer.
For all the East-Germans are well known for their attacking prowess, Nagelsmann has set up in a more rigid, defensive formation against the big boys in the Bundesliga to a decent amount of success, holding Bayern to two low-scoring draws. That makes it quite a challenge to see how the game will go.
I think the goal line being set at 3 is probably about fair but it’s not something I want to entertain with the overs. I do think both teams will score though and so do the bookies with BTTS chalked up around 4/7 which is too short to put up.
However, if we head to Betfair and their Same Game Multi feature we can chuck in Leipzig +2 on the Handicap with BTTS to bring us an even-money shot on that makes appeal. So, basically we would want both teams to score and Leipzig to keep to at least within one goal of the French side.
I’ll also dip into the player props market and I’m happy to take the even-money offering from Betfair on former Dinamo Zagreb attacking midfielder Dani Olmo to register a shot on-target. The Spanish youth international popped up with a goal last time out and looks to be a firm starter now Timo Werner has gone as he occupies a relatively high role.
Olmo also managed 4 shots in the last Bundesliga game of the season with one landing on target.
Best Bets
RB Leipzig vs PSG – Both Teams To Score and Leipzig +2 Handicap (1/1 Betfair)
RB Leipzig vs PSG – Dani Olmo 1+ Shot-On-Target (1/1 Betfair)
