DANNY GRAHAM (@dannygpunter) is back to share his favourite Championship selections from Saturday's card in the second-tier.
Leeds vs Fulham | Saturday 27th June 2020, 15:00 | Sky Sports
The undoubted game of the weekend in the Championship sees Leeds entertain Fulham in a second versus third clash which could have huge ramifications for both teams futures.
A win for Leeds and they will have one foot in the promised land of the Premier League but defeat could spell disaster for the hosts as Fulham would close to within four points and send Leeds into their final seven fixtures on the back of two morale-sapping losses after their unexpected reverse against Cardiff last weekend.
With so much to play for and 90 minutes of fitness in the legs last week, it’s almost guaranteed that we see intensity on a different level to what we have seen so far and that forms the basis of our first bet of the weekend.
I expect full commitment from both teams and no lack of quality either which translates into a nice looking price with William Hill. Both Teams To Score and Both Teams to collect Over 0.5 Cards pays a shade under 6/4. But if you throw in Leeds -1 on the corner handicap you get a much more appealing 12/5, and that’s the punt here.
Both teams unsurprisingly sit in the top half dozen for goals scored in the division but also have the propensity to leak at the other end. Fulham average over one goal per-game conceded yet amazingly sit third. Leeds have conceded 32 in 38 and sit second. It spells goals at both ends.
From a disciplinary perspective, neither are particularly prolific when compared against the rest of the division but delve a little deeper and the competitive nature of the Championship will show why. Fulham sit ninth and Leeds 15th for cards gained but even those lowly positions are achieved with an average of nearly two cards per-game each. We are only asking for one each here which should be easy enough to get in the bag.
On the corners front and completing the bet, Leeds are way out in front for corners gained. A full two corners per-game on average ahead of Fulham, who themselves are no slouches when racking up the quadrant kicks. The width that Leeds have from Jack Harrison and Mateusz Klich, coupled with the eye-catching Luke Ayling and Stuart Dallas overlapping from full back, gives them an definite edge here.
Our second bet from Elland Road focuses on the excellent Harrison. An ever-present for Leeds this season, that’s the first ingredient we need to factor in when looking at player props.
Almost certain to start and assuming the heat doesn’t take its toll, pretty sure to play close to a full game, it gives us time on our side for him to rack up crosses and shots.
At the time of writing there are not any lines available for crosses but there are some decent prices available for him to have shots and shots on-target. Harrison was particularly impressive against Cardiff in my eyes where I thought he had an excellent game and the stats from that game back it up.
Unfortunate not to score when his own player blocked a shot on the goal line, Harrison racked up three shots, one of which was destined for the net until the intervention from his own man. Similar stats on Saturday of three or more shots (2/1 SkyBet) and one on-target (1/1 SkyBet) appeal.
Nottingham Forest v Huddersfield | Saturday 27th June 2020, 15:00
Elsewhere in the Championship and the standout price from a team perspective has to be Nottingham Forest to beat Huddersfield (5/4 Betway) at home on Sunday.
Forest sit comfortably in the play-off positions and will be looking to cement that place with a victory against the Terriers.
Huddersfield, for their part, are right in the thick of a relegation battle sitting just one point above the drop zone. Whilst the Cowley brothers have steadied the ship slightly since arriving, their abject performance against Wigan in their first game back must be particularly concerning. Town limped to an underwhelming 2-0 defeat and they face an even more difficult task this week.
Forest were unlucky to start off with just a draw against Sheffield Wednesday but that’s a difficult place to go nowadays and they looked like they had the win in the bag until an injury-time equaliser from the Owls.
We currently see odds-against quotes for Forest where I make them a good shade of odds-on to win. Betway have the best price a available at 5/4 whilst 6/5 is available generally with the regular bookmakers. The Betfair Exchange at time of writing is around 2.34 so there are a few options available for you to get aboard the Forest train.
Best Bets
Leeds v Fulham – Both Teams To Score, Both Teams Over 0.5 Cards, Leeds -1 Corner Handicap (12/5 William Hill)
Leeds v Fulham – Jack Harrison to have 3+ shots (2/1 SkyBet)
Leeds v Fulham – Jack Harrison to have 1+ shot on-target (1/1 SkyBet)
Nottingham Forest v Huddersfield – Nottingham Forest to win (5/4 Betway)
