DANIEL MCCULLOCH (@DMcCulloch1984) is back in his regular Saturday 3pm slot to deliver his best bet verdicts from the Premier League.
Burnley v Crystal Palace | Saturday 30th November 2019, 15:00
In years gone by, I would be finding ways to oppose Burnley if they were just 27/20 to beat Crystal Palace. However, the performances of these two clubs this season leads me to believe that Burnley are by the far the superior side, even if the league table only shows a three point gap at present.
Burnley have traditionally been the data defiers, conceding far fewer goals than the statistics suggest they should have. However, this season, expected goals tables suggest they should actually have 20 points, rather than the 18 they have amassed, while Crystal Palace should only have 13.
Sean Dyche’s side are solid at the back and in Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes they have two in-form strikers. Crystal Palace may also be relatively tight defensively, but they have scored nine goals fewer than Saturday’s opponents and with Jordan Ayew and Christian Benteke as their main striking options, it is easy to see why.
Ayew has just five goals in 32 appearances for The Eagles, with Benteke having scored 19 times in 93 games. Wilfried Zaha is clearly still a threat but I believe that Burnley will have too much for them in what is their first Premier League game outside of the capital since 24th August.
Chelsea and Liverpool both secured wins at Turf Moor this season, but the hosts have won without conceding against Southampton, Norwich, Everton and West Ham so I wouldn’t rule out a home win to nil if the more adventurous among you fancy that.
I, however, will stick to simply backing a Burnley victory at 27/20 with Unibet.
Liverpool v Brighton | Saturday 30th November 2019, 15:00
With just four games at 3pm this Saturday, finding a second selection was problematic, but I am happy backing a Liverpool victory and Under 3.5 Goals. That is available at 13/10 with Boylesports.
Liverpool have won 12 of their 13 league games this season but I can’t be the only one thinking that that return flatters them. Seven of those victories have been by a single goals, with late goals coming to their rescue on several occasions.
They face a Brighton side who are a lot prettier on the eye under Graham Potter than they were with Chris Hughton at the helm but who have generally struggled against the major forces this season. The Seagulls did record a victory at home to Tottenham, but they have lost 2-0 against both Chelsea and Leicester, 3-1 against Manchester United and 4-0 against Manchester City.
Much has been made about Liverpool’s lack of clean sheets at Anfield this season but given that they have conceded exactly one goal in each of those matches, I wouldn’t read too much in to it. If they do concede here, 2-1 is still on our side, as it has been for Jurgen Klopp’s team on six occasions in the league already this term.
A 2-0 or 2-1 home victory are the most likely scorelines for me, so I am happy to take the 13/10 available on Liverpool to win and Under 3.5 Goals to be scored.
Best Bets
Burnley v Crystal Palace – Burnley to win (27/20 Unibet)
Liverpool v Brighton Liverpool to win and Under 3.5 Goals (13/10 Boylesports)
