PREMIER LEAGUE fanatic Tommy Buckley (@tbuckleythinks) looks at the goals trends and statistics across the opening 13 weeks of 2019/20 campaign.
Premier League | Goal analysis
All 20 teams have played 13 games each and with the action all set to kick-off again after the international break, now feels like a good time to take a statistical look at how the season has played out looking at three particular goals markets: Both Teams To Score, Over 1.5 Goals and Over 2.5 Goals.
These are the most popular football betting markets with punters in the betting shop I work in; Over 1.5 Goals multiples is the bet I've personally had most success with so far this term. From that I'll look at their respective upcoming Premier League fixtures and note any bets I believe are worthwhile, based on the trends.
Both Teams To Score
Here is a breakdown of how all 20 Premier League teams have performed in terms of the matches from a Both Teams To Score perspective:
- Liverpool = 11/13 (85%)
- Tottenham = 10/13 (77%)
- Wolves = 10/13 77%)
- Arsenal = 9/13 (69%)
- Chelsea = 9/13 (69%)
- Bournemouth = 9/13 (69%)
- Southampton = 9/13 (69%)
- Aston Villa = 8/13 (62%)
- Manchester United = 8/13 (62%)
- West Ham = 7/13 (54%)
- Manchester City = 7/13 (54%)
- Leicester City = 6/13 (46%)
- Norwich City = 6/13 (46%)
- Newcastle = 6/12 (50%)
- Burnley = 6/13 (46%)
- Everton = 6/13 (46%)
- Sheffield United = 6/13 (46%)
- Watford = 5/13 (38%)
- Brighton = 5/13 (38%)
- Crystal Palace = 5/13 (38%)
At first glance it has to be said that this forthcoming weekend's fixtures in the Premier League don't immediately scream at you to be clear and obvious Both Teams To Score picks.
There are no obviously strong match-ups in terms of statistics; most of the fixtures look tough to call with confidence on the BTTS front and I'd certainly advise caution in this market.
The appointment of Jose Mourinho has meant that we now have analyse Tottenham games in a different perspective given the differences in tactical approaches from Mauricio Pochettino but of course we can't know how quickly Mourinho's tactics will take to affect the team strongly either way.
Apart from matches against a very poor Crystal Palace side on the day, Colchester in the League cup and two matches against very poor Champions League opposition, Spurs haven't been able to keep clean sheets so the fact Tottenham boast the second highest BTTS rate and with Bournemouth not far behind, the 4/6 on offer for BTTS in Tottenham v Bournemouth is perhaps the best looking option on Saturday.
Liverpool have the highest BTTS percentage in the Premier League and they have allowed opposition teams more attacking play and chances at Anfield this season, so even though Brighton are at the opposite end of the BTTS table the 10/11 on offer for BTTS in Liverpool vs Brighton is one to consider.
Wolves are joint-second highest in the BTTS table and that does add appeal to the even-money offer for BTTS in Wolves vs Sheffield United on Sunday, United have scored in all but one of their Premier League away matches including at Tottenham and Chelsea, they'll be buzzing having notched three against Manchester United last time out.
Chelsea v West Ham would be the only other fixture that I'd consider for BTTS in the Premier League this weekend – 4/6 for both teams scoring in what's usually a tasty London derby will tempt plenty. Chelsea will surely score so you are basically betting 4/6 on West Ham obliging and they can have hope as Chelsea haven't kept many clean sheets this season.
As I said, the fixtures look tricky to call from a BTTS perspective and I personally wouldn't be rushing in to back BTTS in Burnley vs Palace, Southampton vs Watford, Leicester City vs Everton, whilst Norwich vs Arsenal is only 2/5 for BTTS and that's just too short.
Over 1.5 Goals
Here is a breakdown of how all 20 Premier League teams have performed in terms of the matches from an Over 1.5 Goals perspective:
- Manchester City = 13/13 (100%)
- Liverpool = 12/13 (92%)
- Norwich = 12/13 (92%)
- Tottenham = 12/13 (92%)
- Wolves = 12/13 (92%)
- West Ham = 12/13 (92%)
- Southampton = 12/13 (92%)
- Burnley = 12/13 (92%)
- Brighton = 12/13 (92%)
- Aston Villa = 11/13 (85%)
- Chelsea = 11/13 (85%)
- Leicester = 11/13 (85%)
- Manchester United = 10/13 (77%)
- Arsenal = 10/13 (77%)
- Watford = 10/13 (77%)
- Crystal Palace = 10/13 (77%)
- Everton = 10/13 (77%)
- Bournemouth = 9/13 (69%)
- Sheffield United = 8/13 (62%)
- Newcastle = 8/13 (62%)
A quick glance at this particular table will show that Over 1.5 Goals certainly has been the most solid way to go in the Premier League so far, even though the odds are particularly short as individual matches. It's obvious the bookmakers are taking action, the fact 17 of the 20 Premier League teams have seen 77%+ of their matches go Over 1.5 Goals has to be considered for options to include in multiples.
Last weekend I noted that it wouldn't be a big surprise to see all the Premier League fixtures go Over 1.5 and that at 8/1 it was worth consideration for a different approach, it was great to see that land for anybody who followed.
Going for Over 1.5 in the Newcastle v Man City, Liverpool v Brighton, Norwich v Arsenal, Man Utd v Aston Villa, Chelsea v West Ham, Tottenham v Bournemouth and Wolves v Sheffield United combined works out just above 2/1.
This weekend I have to say that doing that again doesn't appeal as much given some of the fixtures but the bookmakers are not taking risks and if you are tempted by having every Premier League match go Over 1.5 you can get around the 6/1 mark.
The benefit of this market is you don't have to worry about the result, just the fact you want to see at least two goals in the games. It's a different way to have an interest in a match and is definitely a market to consider adding into your accumulators, the statistics show how solid an option it is.
Over 2.5 Goals
Here is a breakdown of how all 20 Premier League teams have performed in terms of the matches from an Over 2.5 Goals perspective:
- Liverpool = 11/13 (85%)
- Manchester City = 11/13 (85%)
- Aston Villa = 10/13 (77%)
- Burnley = 10/13 (77%)
- Tottenham = 9/13 (69%)
- Southampton = 9/13 (69%)
- Chelsea = 9/13 (69%)
- Bournemouth = 8/13 (62%)
- Leicester = 7/13 (54%)
- West Ham = 7/13 (54%)
- Arsenal = 7/13 (54%)
- Norwich = 6/13 (46%)
- Brighton = 6/13 (46%)
- Watford = 6/13 (46%)
- Everton = 5/13 (38%)
- Newcastle = 5/13 (38%)
- Manchester United 5/13 (38%)
- Crystal Palace = 5/13 (38%)
- Sheffield United = 4/13 (31%)
- Wolves = 4/13 (31%)
The statistics for Over 2.5 Goals in the Premier League aren't as strong or solid as those Over 1.5 numbers and no doubt it's a tougher market to call with confidence but it's still a fun market to consider and there are still tempting options to check out.
As with all of these highlighted goals markets the winning machine that is Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool sit at the top with 85% matches going Over 2.5 and they've seen Over 2.5 in nine of their last 10 matches in all competitions. It's only 1/2 for Over 2.5 goals against Brighton but it looks solid enough at that price.
Nine of Chelsea's 13 Premier League matches have gone Over 2.5 and it's happened in five of their last six matches in all competitions – Over 2.5 has landed in West Ham‘s last three with the Hammers conceding three goals in each. Chelsea will fancy goals, the London derby adds an extra element, and although it's only 2/5 for Over 2.5, I wouldn't want to back against that happening.
Given how Jose Mourinho usually operates then there may well come a time when it's logical to leave Tottenham alone when it comes to expecting loads of goals. Under 2.5 instead of Over 2.5 may well end up being the bet with Jose.
For now though Mourinho surely can't work the magic that Tottenham defence needs that quickly – the 3-2 win at West Ham proof of that along with other results – and so 8/15 being on offer for Spurs v Bournemouth to go Over 2.5 is worth chancing in the hope both teams go for it – if Bournemouth attack then the Tottenham defence will give them a chance.
Newcastle v Manchester City and Norwich v Arsenal are two other matches that will be popular as Over 2.5 games – they are both short at 2/5, but combined with the other three matches you'd be looking at around 11/2 for the five-fold.
