PREMIER LEAGUE analyst Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) takes a look at Saturday's 3pm night's action, picking out his best bets.
Leicester v Bournemouth | Saturday 30th March 2019, 15:00
With seventh place still possibly getting a European spot, these two have more to play for than you might think, especially with some of the sides above having FA Cup distractions.
I expect an open, entertaining game at The King Power (the reverse fixture ended 4-2 to Bournemouth) but as Both Teams To Score is a little too skinny at a best price of 13/20, I am going to chance both sides to find the net and Over 2.5 Goals to be scored at even-money with William Hill.
I have written previously about how this with will be a popular bet while Brendan Rodgers is Leicester manager and the Northern Irishman has not disappointed to date. This bet would have landed in all three of his matches so far and I expect it to do so again when they face a Bournemouth side who are better going forward than they are defensively.
Only the bottom four have conceded more goals than Eddie Howe’s side but with Joshua King, Ryan Fraser and Callum Wilson all likely to start, they possess a lot of firepower that will trouble a Leicester side that will be missing Harry Maguire through suspension.
Additionally, I think backing Leicester to win 2-1 is worth a small play at 8/1 with Bet365. Such a bet has been victorious for them in four of their 31 games this term and the price seems plenty big enough to me.
Burnley v Wolves | Saturday 30th March 2019, 15:00
It may seem surprising but I am opposing Wolves here.
To date this season, Burnley’s home record against sides from seventh down reads W4-D2-L5, while Wolves’ away record against the same teams is W4-D2-L4 and they’ve been particularly poor against the bottom dwellers, deservedly losing to doomed Huddersfield as well as suffering a defeat at Cardiff and failing to beat Fulham at Craven Cottage.
Burnley have lost their last two home games against Leicester and Crystal Palace but were unfortunate in both encounters, missing key chances on each occasion as they comfortably won the Expected Goals (xG) battle.
This calendar year – largely due to replacing Joe Hart with Tom Heaton – the Clarets have 15 points from 11 games and have beaten Tottenham, drawn at Old Trafford and scored twice at Anfield in that run.
They may have lost their last four games, but I don’t believe that is a true reflection on how Burnley are playing. Two of those matches were the aforementioned games against Palace and Leicester, while they also missed key chances in defeat at St James’ Park, while the other loss was away to Liverpool.
All things considered, I think the 6/5 Betfred are offering on the home side in the Draw No Bet market is worth backing.
Best Bets
Leicester v Bournemouth – Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score (1/1 William Hill)
Leicester v Bournemouth – Leicester 2-1 Bournemouth (8/1 Bet365)
Burnley v Wolves – Burnley draw no bet (6/5 Betfred)
