MANCHESTER CITY look to bounce back from their Premier League defeat to Chelsea when they welcome Everton to The Etihad. Tom Love (@TomLove_18) picks out his favourite betting angle.
Manchester City v Everton | Saturday 15th December 2018, 12:30 | BT Sport
Despite their dominance over most of the league under Pep Guardiola, Manchester City have failed to beat Everton in their two meetings to The Etihad under the ex-Barcelona man. It seems the Toffees have the Indian sign over the Blue Moon – the Citizens have conceded more goals against Everton than any other sign since the beginning of his tenure.
A lot of the historic stats are quite favourable for Marco Silva’s side – they’ve lost just two of their last seven against City so that’s enough to put me off 1/5 quotes on the hosts.
Everton will fancy their chances of at least getting on the scoresheet, they rarely fail to. Chuck in the fact City have conceded in their last five in all competitions then It may surprise some to see Both Teams To Score chalked up at a backable 10/11 quote from Betfred.
That could well tempt punters in but with the Citizens operating a strong 0.83 xG against figure and their overall defensive record this season, I’m going to swerve it.
Tame tussle expected
I struggled to find an angle I like in the more traditional markets for this game so I’m going to delve into the cards market.
These two sides are more disciplined than most. Manchester City have picked up 15 yellows and zero reds this season, that’s less than one a game on average. Everton have had 20 yellows and one red, averaging out at around 1.4 cards per-game.
There’s a high chance that this game could be done and dusted by half-time too. City can be ruthless in the opening exchanges when they want to be and if that is the case it takes the sting out of the game and the second-half is played like a training session.
If you accumulate these facts and theories then it would be no surprise to see the card line at 2.5. However, Bet365 have set it at 3.5 with 5/6 available on both over and under. I’m going to squeeze a bit more value out of that though by scrolling down and taking Under 3.5 Asian Cards which we can find at 9/10.
There’s no difference in the two bets but there is in price. I’d stress anyone who enjoys a punt to check out the Asian markets before placing a bet, often they’re better prices for the same bet due to greater liquidity in the Asian markets.
Idrissa Gueye is a doubt for the visitors too, he is a prime suspect for a booking and should he fail to make it then the bet looks all the more attractive.
Given the fact SkyBet go 4/7 on Under 40 Booking Points (essentially the same bet) it makes the 9/10 with Bet365 look like standout value.
Best Bets
Manchester City v Everton – Under 3.5 Cards (9/10 Bet365)
