ANOTHER busy night of Premier League football is on the card on Wednesday night. Tom Love (@TomLove_18) picks out his favourite betting angles.
Burnley v Liverpool | Wednesday 5th December 2018, 19:45
Liverpool were lucky at the weekend – a 1-0 win courtesy of a last-minute Jordan Pickford blunder in the Merseyside derby papered over a pretty average performance. The Reds have the special knack of winning when not at their best though and they can build on that when travelling to a dreadfully out-of-sorts-Burnley here.
Sean Dyche’s hosts had a wonderful season in 2017/18 – qualifying for Europe was a remarkable achieve. However, their underlying numbers showed that they were vastly over-performing and those figures have not improved; they’ve even gotten worse.
The Clarets are rock bottom of the three major data metrics: shots in the box ratio, Expected Goals ratio and also xG from open play ratio. Burnley are comfortably the worst side over those three and they’re not getting the luck they garnered the previous season, and so it leaves them in 19th in the current table.
Burnley have lost by two or more goals in seven of their nine defeats so far this term. What’s more, the Lancashire outfit have fitness doubts over Steven Defour and Robbie Brady. It doesn’t look promising for the hosts here.
Despite failing to fully convince, Liverpool are second behind Man City on the three aforementioned data metrics, so you could argue they’ve been a tad unlucky not to put teams away. They’ve a great opportunity to do that here though and we can back Jurgen Klopp’s men to overcome a -1.5 Asian Handicap at 5/6 with BetVictor.
Everton v Newcastle | Wednesday 5th December 2018, 19:45
The blue half of Merseyside will have been despondent after that last-gasp loss on Sunday – the Toffees played with class and composure for the most part and fully deserved a point at Anfield. But Everton can bounce back to winning ways as they host a Newcastle side coming off the back of a 3-0 drubbing at home against West Ham.
The Toon Army were outclassed in that fixture and deservedly lost, as shown by the xG count being 1.00 – 2.55. Away from home, the Magpies have only one victory to their name, last Monday at Burnley.
Rafa Benitez goes for the point when on the road and I’m sure Newcastle will be doing that here. However, Everton should have too much for them and there’s two angle I like to get the Toffees onside at attractive prices.
I’m firstly going to chuck Under 3.5 Goals in alongside a home win by using Bet365’s BetBuilder feature – we can get a handsome 6/5 quote. Four out of Everton’s five home victories have also had fewer than four goals, and the same applies for eight of Newcastle’s nine defeats this season.
I’m also happy to have a play in the Half-Time/Full-Time market and back Draw/Everton at 17/5 with Marathon. Given how Newcastle set up away from home, they’ll try keep it tight in the early exchanges, and going in at the break all-square should not worry the hosts too much. Marco Silva can call upon a strong bench and have an impact in the second-half and that’s when they’d exert their pressure.
This selection has copped in the last four consecutive Everton home fixtures. History also favors the hosts here as they’ve won eight of their last nine against the Magpies, keeping a clean sheet in their last five meetings.
Best Bets
Burnley v Liverpool – Liverpool -1.5 Asian Handicap (5/6 BetVictor)
Everton v Newcastle – Everton to win and Under 3.5 Goals (6/5 Bet365)
Everton v Newcastle – Draw/Everton (17/5 Marathon)
