PREMIER LEAGUE expert Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) is back to attack Saturday's 3pm best bets.
Burnley v Huddersfield | Saturday 6th October 2018, 15:00
Burnley host Huddersfield at Turf Moor on Saturday afternoon and I would certainly use the term host rather than entertain to describe this encounter.
With some odds-against quotes available, I imagine the Clarets will have plenty of support as they face a Huddersfield side that have looked desperate for much of this season.
I am more than happy to swerve the match odds, however, as – once again – I believe Burnley’s recent results have defied their performance data.
While they probably deserved to beat Bournemouth a fortnight ago, it definitely wasn’t a 4-0 game and they somehow beat Cardiff last weekend despite losing the shot count 19-3.
Huddersfield’s struggles are clear: they create so little from open play and three goals from seven games is a concerning statistic. While I feel that there may be goals in this one eventually, I expect a cagey start and like the look of Marathon's 29/20 on the half-time score being 0-0.
Since returning to the Premier League two seasons ago, 18 of Burnley’s 41 matches have been scoreless at half-time, while 11 of Huddersfield’s 22 games have also failed to see a first-half goal. Additionally, both encounters between these two last year ended goalless.
I struggle to see either side creating many opportunities and feel that this represents excellent value.
Crystal Palace v Wolves | Saturday 6th October 2018, 15:00
Such has been Wolves’ start to the season that they are actually vying for favouritism in this encounter.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have only lost one of their opening seven fixtures and that was a very unfortunate defeat at Leicester. They have managed at least 10 attempts on goal in every match this term, secured 1-1 draws against both Manchester clubs and really should have scored more than the eight league goals they’ve managed so far.
Wolves have looked pretty solid defensively as well, conceding just one goal in their last four matches. They will be confident travelling to South London too, with Palace having lost four of their seven games to date.
While you certainly could make a case for backing Wolves outright or in the Draw No Bet market, I rather like the look of Both Teams To Score, which is available at 19/20 with Betfair.
Incredibly, Palace have failed to score a home goal yet, but that doesn’t tell the full story, with the statistics certainly suggesting that they should have done against both Southampton and Newcastle, while they also hit the bar against Liverpool.
Taking a longer term view, they have only failed to score in five of Roy Hodgson’s 20 games at Selhurst Park, with both sides finding the net in 11 of those matches.
With both sides clearly offering a goal threat, I think there is too much recency bias in this price and urge you to take Betfair’s 19/20 on both nets bulging.
Tottenham v Cardiff | Saturday 6th October 2018, 15:00
Since the start of last season, four of Tottenham’s 20 home Premier League games have finished by this scoreline and given the energy exerted against Barcelona on Wednesday evening, it is hard to foresee a lively display from the home side.
They should ultimately have too much for strugglers Cardiff, but I don’t expect this to be a comfortable home victory and think the 8/1 SkyBet are offering on a 1-0 victory is more than fair.
Best Bets
Burnley v Huddersfield – 0-0 half-time correct score (29/20 Marathon)
Crystal Palace v Wolves – Both Teams To Score (19/20 Betfair)
Tottenham v Cardiff – Tottenham to win 1-0 (8/1 SkyBet)
