BANG IN-FORM Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) is back to attack Saturday's 3pm Premier League best bets.
Everton v Huddersfield | Saturday 1st September 2018, 15:00
I wouldn’t like to guess how many bets I have placed on football in my lifetime, but I have definitely placed less than five ‘win to nil’ bets.
I am generally quite an aggressive punter so correct scores generally take my fancy if I am strong on one side. Additionally, as stated in my piece discussing Everton when they faced Southampton a couple of weeks ago, they are not a side likely to keep too many clean sheets.
While manager Marco Silva will be pleased to have gained five points from his sides opening three fixtures, he won’t be happy that his side have conceded five goals and had two players sent off in those games.
Losing a two-goal lead at Bournemouth last weekend must have been particularly tough to bear but I don’t see the Toffees having any problems overcoming Huddersfield on Saturday afternoon and believe they will do so without conceding a goal.
David Wagner’s men have lost 12 of their 20 away games since gaining promotion and failed to score in 11 of these matches. In their 11 games at club’s who finished in the top half last season their record reads: W0-D3-L8, scoring two and shipping 25. Seven of these games saw them lose without finding the net and I struggle to see them troubling Everton.
Terriers fans will point to the fact that games against Chelsea and Manchester City represented a tough start to the season but their performance against Cardiff last weekend was very concerning. They had a player sent off in the 63rd minute but before that only managed one shot on-target.
Across Town's three league games to date, they have had just three shots on-target and scored just one goal and their Expected Goals numbers are equally appalling.
Everton generally possess a decent home record against sides outside of the top six, winning 22 of their last 27 encounters, with 12 of these seeing them keeping their opposition scoreless. I fear for Huddersfield this season and cannot see them leaving Goodison on Saturday evening with anything to show for their endeavours.
Boylesports are 11/8 on an Everton win to nil and that is good value in my opinion.
Crystal Palace v Southampton | Saturday 1st September 2018, 15:00
When Roy Hodgson took over as Crystal Palace, I remember stating that Roy Hodgson was misunderstood.
As a West Bromwich Albion supporter, I have nothing but love for the man and really enjoyed his time as manager of my club and he quickly dispelled the myth that he was a defensive-minded manager. No head coach likes to concede goals and while he was no different, he always set out a side to win games.
This has been equally evident during his time in South London. Both teams have found the net in 20 of Hodgson’s 37 games (54%) as Eagles boss and 11 of his 18 (61%) home matches.
Southampton have conceded in eight of Mark Hughes’ 11 games in charge and its difficult to see them keeping a clean sheet here. Since the start of last season, both teams have scored in 23 of their 41 (56%) league matches.
All of this suggests to me that the Evens William Hill are offering on both sides finding the net is simply too big.
Long shots
There are a couple I fancy this week.
Firstly, Everton to beat Huddersfield 2-0. Quite simply, this is Huddersfield’s most common away scoreline. They have lost in this manner on six of their 20 games on the road.
I expect this to be a comfortable afternoon for The Toffees, so take the 6/1 with Bet365 on them matching the result from last season.
I also like the look of Crystal Palace to beat Southampton 2-1 at 17/2 with Bet365. This was Roy Hodgson’s most common method of victory as West Brom manager and it has been the same at Selhurst Park. Five of his 37 games have finished by this scoreline.
Additionally, Southampton have lost in this manner in each of their last two matches. I feel that the Saints will score but ultimately Palace will have too much for them so this is a big price in my view.
Remember to put around 20% of your regular stake on the long shots!
Best Bets
Everton v Huddersfield – Everton to win to nil (11/8 Boylesports)
Everton v Huddersfield – Everton 2-0 Huddersfield (6/1 Bet365)
Crystal Palace v Southampton – Both Teams To Score (1/1 William Hill)
Crystal Palace v Southampton – Crystal Palace 2-1 Southampton (17/2 Bet365)
