NRL analyst Chris Thomas (@SolidPunts) is heading Down Under on Saturday morning in search of value as Wests Tigers meet St George Illawarra Dragons.
Wests Tigers v St George Illawarra Dragons | Saturday 18th August 2018, 08:30
Last week was a potential get right game for the Dragons but it didn't get right, it got even ‘wronger' as they were humbled in a humiliating 40-4 defeat to wooden spoon contenders Paramatta. To make things worse captain Gareth Widdop dislocated his shoulder meaning Kurt Mann will start at 6.
St George coach Paul “Mary” McGregor had his work cut out enough before the England no. 1 got injured. In 3 seasons as Dragons coach he's yet to have a winning record in the second half of a season. The Dragons stand bottom of the form ladder with one win from their last 6. Over that period, no team has conceded more points, metres, line breaks or drop outs than St George and the Tigers can be backed to win the game outright at 1.87 (Marathon) which certainly appeals.
The Tigers have not been great this year and their record of 4 wins from their last 6 certainly flatters the worst attack in the league. The Tigers do welcome back Mahe Fonua though who gives them both balance and power in their attack that they desperately lack and at 16/1 (SkyBet) tempts me as a first tryscorer back.
The angle
The Tigers are just two points off the playoff places with three games to go and with the stakes so high I expect them to continue with their conservative style of taking penalty goals. With that in mind I see the Tigers nicking a close game.
Nine of the Tigers 11 wins this season have come by the 1-10 point margin as have half of the Dragons' defeats and the 12/5 (Coral) on Wests 1-10 is my NAP this week.
Best Bets
Wests Tigers v St George Illawarra Dragons – Wests Tigers to win by 1-10 points (12/5 Coral)
