THE Premier League returns this Saturday as Man Utd welcome Liverpool to Old Trafford. Ben Levene (@BenLevene96) shares his best bets.
Man Utd v Liverpool | Saturday 10th March 2018, 12:30 | Sky Sports
By now Jose Mourinho’s approach to games against the top-six needs little introduction. All three meetings between these two sides with Mourinho involved have been drawn with Under 2.5 goals, including two 0-0 draws.
His pragmatic approach means Utd will be cautious of Liverpool’s pace, and therefore sit relatively deep in a 4-3-3, with Nemanja Matic and Scott McTominay especially rigid in front of a vulnerable back line.
In contrast, Liverpool will bring intensity from the off, aiming to press high.
Sadio Mane and Mo Salah are constant threats with their running in behind, while Roberto Firmino’s movement acts as a foil. Salah was rested in midweek along with Virgil Van Dijk with this fixture in mind.
Goals could be sparse
Seven of eight Man Utd games versus the top six this season have seen three or less goals, and as a result of this Under 2.75 Asian Goals draws appeal at 8/11. Only half our stake is lost if exactly three goals are scored, while we land a winner if the net is found fewer than three times.
At home under Mourinho, this bet has won in six of nine games when hosting the top six, with half the stake losing on the other three occasions. None of those nine games have seen greater than three goals.
All three of Liverpool’s games away at the top six this season have seen greater than three goals, with the Reds conceding at least three on each of those occasions.
However, last campaign three of five Liverpool away games at the top six saw less than three goals, with one going over and the other achieving exactly that mark.
Overpriced Utd
Utd have a phenomenal record at Old Trafford this season, losing just one of 19 games (W16-D2-L1). They’ve kept clean sheets in 13 of those games.
In 51 home matches under Mourinho, they’ve conceded more than the single goal just four times, with two of those coming against Manchester City.
At home to the top six during that period they are W4-D3-L2, with both losses again coming against City, so it’s surprising to see them as outsiders in the Draw no Bet market.
Jurgen Klopp’s side have a pretty impressive record against the top-six sides during his reign, although this season they’re W2-D4-L2.
Both of those wins came against Arsenal and City who approached the game in an open manner. Spurs at Wembley and United and Chelsea at Anfield all aimed to frustrate and were successful in doing so, with Liverpool mustering just two goals across those three matches.
Liverpool are a danger, but they’re favourites for the match and I’m not sure that should be the case.
Best Bets
Man Utd v Liverpool – Man Utd Draw no Bet (21/20 Unibet)
Man Utd v Liverpool – Under 2.75 Asian Goals (8/11 Bet Victor)
