STATS expert Stats Bet (@statsbet) takes an analytical look at Saturday's Bundesliga action, pinpointing the value bets according to the numbers.
Eintracht Frankfurt v Stuttgart | Saturday 30th October 2017, 14:30
Eintracht Frankfurt welcome Stuttgart to the Commerzbank-Arena on Saturday and I think goals will be firmly on the agenda.
Eintracht Frankfurt historically have good shot ratings at home. They’ve ranked eighth in Total Shot Ratio (TSR) – their share of the total shots in their own games – and 13th in Shots On Target Ratio (SoTR), whilst averaging 2.90 total goals per-game.
This season sees Niko Kovac’s men ranking in the top-five for both at home – fourth in TSR and third in SoTR.
Stuttgart’s historical away shot data in the Bundesliga is good, featuring in the top 10 for both TSR and SoTR – ranking eighth for both – and averaging 3.60 total goals per-game.
This season the Swabians are again within the top 10 for both shot metrics, ranking fifth for TSR and seventh for SoTR.
Although Frankfurt have only scored one home goal and Stuttgart have managed a solitary strike away from their opening games, with these underlying figures we should see plenty of action and goals to feature for both sides.
If we look to recent results when these two teams have faced each other, the last five games have seen Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score land, with an average of 5.4 goals per-game.
Viewing the head-to-head records at the Commerzbank-Arena, four of the last five have seen Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score cop, with an average of 4.60 goals per-game.
Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score can be backed at 29/20 (Coral).
Wolfsburg v Mainz | Saturday 30th October 2017, 14:30
Martin Schmidt has recently been appointed the new manager of Wolfsburg and he has started brightly, bringing the attacking football that he implemented at former club and opponents Mainz with him.
After only having a few days to prepare, he drew his first match at the Volkswagen Arena against Werder Bremen and then impressively drew away at Bayern Munich, coming from two goals down at half-time.
At former club Mainz last season, the average goals per-game was 3.20 – scoring 1.70 and conceding 1.50 – we’ve already seen three goals in two games for Wolfsburg with Both Teams To Score banking in both matches.
Sandro Schwarz has had a poor start to life in the Bundesliga with Mainz (W2-D0-L4). Both wins came on home soil with the visitors losing both games on their travels whilst failing to score.
Scoring doesn’t seem to a problem for Mainz at home though, notching six in their last three and I fully expect them to start getting on the scoreboard away from the Opel Arena sooner than later.
With both teams looking to start picking up points regularly, we could see an open game and I am backing Both Teams To Score at 9/10 (Stan James) here.
Best Bets
Eintracht Frankfurt v Stuttgart – Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score (29/20 Coral)
Wolfsburg v Mainz – Both Teams To Score (9/10 Stan James)
