Bundesliga: Go against the grain in Saturday's standout contest

BUNDESLIGA boff Tom Loveys (@ValueBetMethods) returns to shares his favourite fancies from the weekend's action in Germany.

Bundesliga returns for Matchday Three and after a couple of gruelling weeks of selections, we’re hoping to have turned the corner, ridded ourselves of the international break and looking (at this week anyway) on the fixture list with the Asian lines in mind….

Asian Handicap/Goals betting is becoming increasingly more popular as the WLB guys will testify; with small margins, it can be an efficient way of betting and turns even the most one-sided affair into a competitive betting heat.

With pushes (money back) on your bets, half losses and half wins – some of the risks can be taken from the bets and more and more operators are offering these competitive prices.

So let’s see what we can offer when it comes to Bundesliga MD3, with selections all at evens or above.

Wolfsburg v Hannover | Saturday 9th September 2017. 14:30

Hannover have come back to the Bundesliga with a bang – two straight 1-0 victories and maximum points. Coach Andre Breitenreiter has now gone 12 games unbeaten since being put in charge last year and confidence should be high going into a clash with Wolfsburg at the Volkswagen Arena.

The Wolves, after being defeated by Dortmund, bounced back in MD2 against Frankfurt and boosted by deadline day signing, Divock Origi, will want to give home fans something to shout about – although the Reds from Hannover have the upper hand in the head-to-heads having triumphed in four out of the last eight meetings.

Hannover will set a club record if they can take all the points making it three wins from three, it may be a tough assignment, but they look over-priced to me.

Wolfsburg have lost 11/20 home games and whilst Hannover last stint in the top-flight ended in relegation, they have managed to avoid defeat in 10 of their last 20 matches at this level.

On the Asian Handicap, Hannover +0.5, essentially Hannover to win or draw but at better odds at 107/100 (188Bet) seems of interest, so as long as the Reds have something to take home – so will we!

Hoffenheim v Bayern Munich | Saturday 9th September 2017. 17:30 | BT Sport

Bayern – known for dominating the league with all their stars, scoring goals at will – travel to Hoffenheim, themselves seen as a bit of a force at home and another team where goals are free and easy….

So, let’s buck the trend, go the other way and not follow the crowd. Hoffenheim are a big price, especially with 13 wins and a solitary defeat at home in the last 20. Could you really select them against Bayern, who have that extra gear whenever necessary? Probably not, although I’d expect a tight encounter – with lesser goals than expected.

Cue the 4-4 thriller. But in all seriousness, the stats indicate that goals might not be as expected. Bayern have had 11/20 away games go Under the 2.5 line and 15/20 Under the 3.5 line. The same lines for Hoffenheim have seen nine and 12 respectively.

Both last season’s games finished Under with a 1-1 draw and a 1-0 Hoffenheim victory. We’ve tried to push the Goal Line higher to minimise the risk, so at Under 3 Goals (three goals exactly sees our stake returned) at 5/4 (Dafabet) – we’ll hope for another tight encounter.