DARTS expert Mark Stinchombe (@MarkStinchcombe) shares his favourites fancies from Thursday's afternoon session at the World Championship.
Mark Webster v Daryl Gurney | Thursday 13:15 | Sky Sports 3
Mark Webster came through a tough battle to defeat the number eight seed Mensur Suljovic 4-3.
It was a scrappy affair at times, with both players missing countless doubles, 42 in the case of the Welshmen. This after averaging just 87.78 in his 3-0 victory over Joe Murnan in round one.
Daryl Gurney has faired better, racing into a 2-0 lead in round two against Robert Thornton before a late surge from the Scot made the match look a closer game with another 4-3 victory, despite averaging 95 to 91.
Gurney has had the better year on tour, making the final of the Dutch Masters in February, and has made two semis and three quarter-finals in the last six months.
‘Webby’ on the other hand just has a solitary semi from February, and has only made one quarter-final in the latter part of 2016.
The form and ability of both players is very much reflected in the prices with Gurney a 4/7 favourite.
For those that aren’t aware, Webby has suffered from dartitis in the past meaning his technique/confidence in his throw has previously been affected, and I would always want to oppose a player in his situation.
Never the most prolific of 180 hitters, this looks the market to exploit. In the 14 TV matches he’s played this year (data missing of two), he’s thrown 35 180s in 162 legs (0.216 per-leg).
However, 14 of these have been in two matches against the aforementioned Suljovic, with the slow play of the Austrian aiding the time afforded to concentrate for Webster.
Gurney plays at a normal speed though and the Welshman will be forced to play quicker. The market suggests we’re in for 23.5 legs, giving us 5.08 180s, which is still a safety-first estimate, with the Suljovic 180 records skewing the prediction on the high side.
Back Mark Webster to hit Under 5.5 180s at evens with Unibet.
Dave Chisnall v Jelle Klaasen | Thursday 14:30 | Sky Sports 1
This match looks like it’s going to be a cracker with both players capable of 180s galore and big combination finishes.
‘Chizzy’ has somewhat stumbled to get to this stage, relying on his heavy scoring power and 180 hitting at crucial times to get through, having dropped two sets in both rounds with his check out rate less than 40%. Last year’s semi-finalist Klaasen has come through quite comfortably, dropping just one set.
World number seven Chisnall has a rotten World Championship record having never gone beyond this stage in five previous attempts. With Jelle playing more confidently, it’s a slight surprise the ‘Cobra’ isn’t shorter than the 11/8 available, especially having won two of their three meetings this year, leading the legs 21-18 and the overall career record 5-3.
There’s a couple of other markets I think hold better value though. As I’ve already mentioned both are prolific 180 hitters, Chisnall throwing one every 0.36 legs for the year and Klaasen every 0.32 legs.
With not a lot in it, the 5/2 for Klaasen to hit the most is a decent bet, made even better by keeping the draw onside by taking the 9/4 (Coral) available.
The other bet I like, is for the match winning double to be 18 at 6/1 (Betfred). This is Klaasen’s favourite and according to Rod Studd, is Chisnall’s (although his finishing has left a little to be desired thus far).
Alas, it’s a pro-Klaasen bet with potential for a Chizzy bonus. Jelle has won 21 legs to get to this stage, 11 of them finished with double 18 (52%). Dave has taken out D18 five times by this point, meaning a combined 34%.
When they met just last month in an epic 10-9 Chisnall victory in the last 16 of the Players Championship, 6 of the 19 legs were finished on D18 (32%).
James Wade v Michael Smith | Thursday 16:30 | Sky Sports 1
James Wade has done his usual Machine-esque performance in dropping just one set so far as he looks to make the quarter-finals for the 8th time in the last 10 years.
Michael Smith however, has had to come through two tough final set deciders when priced 2/5 and 4/9, which given this, perhaps goes a long way to explaining Wade’s odds of 4/11 despite Bully Boy’s superior scoring power.
Which leads me nicely onto a bet we profited on in James’ first round match with once again backing unders on his 180 line. Wade is now throwing 0.2 180s per-leg in 2016, and with 23.5 legs predicted, his projected amount is 4.7. Take the 5/6 (Stan James) on under 5.5.
Aside from the main bet, another interest looks, like above, to take advantage of Wade’s preferred double. Fond of double 10, the 5/1 (Boylesports) on the opening leg being finished on this and the 11/2 (Betfred) on the match, both look value. ‘
‘The Machine’ has won 8 of his 23 legs on double 10 (35%), averaging over 50% on his checkouts, with the bonus that Smith is also partial to that side of the board when he’s not scrambling, as shown by six of his 18 winning legs against Mervyn King (33%).
Best Bets
Mark Webster v Daryl Gurney – Under 5.5 Mark Webster 180s (1/1 Unibet)
Dave Chisnall v Jelle Klaasen – Jelle Klaasen Most 180s draw no bet (9/4 Coral)
Dave Chisnall v Jelle Klaasen – Match Winning Double 18 (6/1 Betfred)
James Wade v Michael Smith – James Wade under 5.5 180s (5/6 Stan James)
James Wade v Michael Smith – 1st leg Winning Double 10 (5/1 Boylesports)
James Wade v Michael Smith – Match Winning Double 10 (11/2 Betfred)
