CARD KING Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) highlights the bookings value for England’s clash with Wales in Lens on Thursday.
England v Wales | Thursday 14.00 | BBC1
England have long held the upper hand in their contests with neighburs Wales and will be looking to maintain their impressive record against their opponents when the teams meet in Lens in the second round of Euro 2016 Group B fixtures.
England and Wales have met on 101 occasions, England winning 66 matches and Wales 14. Annual opponents in the British Home Championship, which ran for a century until 1984, England and Wales have met just four times in the three decades since.
Wales have not beaten England since a 1-0 victory in Wrexham on 2 May 1984, debutant Mark Hughes settling the match. England have won the last four games between the countries without conceding a goal.
England triumphed 2-0 at home and 1-0 away en-route to qualifying for the 2006 World Cup, then 2-0 away and 1-0 at home to assist their qualifying bid for Euro 2012. Ashley Young was the last player to score in the fixture.
There has been some inflammatory comments coming out of the Wales camp this week. It has surprised me, as I'm not sure why you'd want to do Roy Hodgson's team talk for him?
Dr Felix Brych of Germany has been handed control of this battle. Whilst he is undoubtedly experienced, he is not usually as lenient as other similar officials such as Cuneyt Cakir or Jonas Eriksson.
Brych averaged 7.00 cards-per-game in this season's Champions League, as an example. That said, you would expect him to be busy given all the chat this week, especially from the Welsh.
Bet365 have Over 45 Bookings Points at 11/10 whereas William Hill are offering just 3/4 – a big difference in opinion.
England averaged 1.50 cards-per-game in the qualifiers and the Dragons 2.2 cards-per-game.
Sorry for sounding like a broken record, but I think there's mileage in the 4-6 market here. It's hard to really imagine 7+ cards, or indeed as little as three being shown.
Therefore, I'm recommending 4-6 cards at 10/11 with William Hill.
Best Bets
England v Wales – 4-6 Cards (10/11 William Hill)
