BOOKINGS boff Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) is in splendid form. Can he continue his hot streak with a Champions League punt on Tuesday?
Man City v PSG | Tuesday 19.45 | BT Sport Europe
Manchester City and Paris St Germain resume battle at the Etihad as the Champions League knockout action hots up.
The tie is evenly poised after a Desmond 2-2 in the first leg in Paris. Both teams will be desperate to reach the semi-final and that should ensure a tense atmosphere.
One of our favourite referees, Spaniard Carlos Velasco Carballo is in charge and that usually bodes well for cards.
I've looked at the past eight Champions League quarter-final second leg games over the last two seasons – the matches have produced total card figures of 7-4-1-7-4-3-8-8 – that’s an average of 5.25 cards-per-game.
Some traditionally lenient officials such as Howard Webb, Jonas Eriksson and Sven Moen have operated in those games. When more fussy referees (Felix Brych, Pedro Poenca and David Skomina) were in charge, there were plenty more cards. Carballo definitely falls into the ‘fussy' category.
He averages 7.25 cards-per-game in La Liga but this drops to 5.10 cards-per-game in European competition.
Accordingly, I believe that we should take the 1.90 on Over 5 cards on Bet365's Asian cards line as a bit of insurance. If there are six or more we will win but if there's only five we will get our money back.
Best Bets
Man City v PSG – Over 5 Cards on the Asian cards line (1.90 Bet365)
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