KING of the cards Gavin Murphy has spotted some value in the Euro 2016 play-off between Ukraine and Slovenia.
Ukraine v Slovenia | Saturday 17.00 | Sky Sports 1
When the qualification games were first announced this was the encounter that caught my eye. I have targeted it ever since.
However, my enthusiasm has been dampened somewhat by the appointment of Swedish referee Jonas Eriksson.
I can only deduce that UEFA thought long and hard about this appointment because they took an age to confirm it. When you see the stats, it's not hard to see why they have opted for an experienced, fuss-free whistleblower.
As regular readers of this column will know, I usually steer clear of Scandinavian officials who tend to dish out very few cards.
However, I'm going to make an exception here because group matches in Ukraine averaged 6.8 cards-per-game. Slovenian away games averaged 5.4 cards-per-game, so very healthy numbers from an overs perspective.
As mentioned, the referee is a concern but Over 4.5 cards at 3/4 with William Hill looks very backable given what's at stake and it gets my recommendation.
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Ukraine v Slovenia – Over 4.5 Cards (3/4 William Hill)
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