KING of the cards Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) is back with a bookings bet from the eagerly-anticipated Euro 2016 qualifying clash between bitter rivals Albania and Serbia on Thursday night.
Albania v Serbia | Thursday 19.45 | Sky Sports Red Button
Already certain of at least a play-off place, Albania will hope that a victory at home against Serbia can strengthen their case for a top-two finish in Group I – and a direct route to their first ever major tournament finals.
Serbia’s previous qualifying match against Albania in Belgrade was abandoned with the score goalless after fighting broke out between players, fans and team officials on the pitch of the Partizan Stadium.
The brawl, which involved representatives of both sides and a number of pitch invaders from the stands, arose after a drone had been flown above the pitch, lowering a flag bearing an insignia of ‘Greater Albania’.
Given this background from the previous meeting, you have to imagine the atmosphere will be ferocious.
Italy's top referee, Nicola Rizzoli, is the man in charge and he faces a near impossible task of keeping his cards in his pocket.
In five games this season he has brandished 27 yellows and four reds. Great stats which say, he doesn't tend to mess about.
Bet365’s opening line was Over 6.5 Cards but this has since been increased to 7.5 so they are expecting plenty of bad behaviour in Tirana. However, I think Rizzoli will be desperate to keep things under some sort of control early doors.
In Serie A he gives 63% of his cards in the second-half. With an average of 7.67 cards-per-game that implies 4.8 cards are handed out after the half-time interval.
Therefore, the Over 3 Cards in the second-half market with William Hill at 10/11 looks terrific value and I'm getting stuck in.
Best Bets
Albania v Serbia – Over 3 cards in the second-half (10/11 William Hill)
25/1 Portugal, Scotland + Germany All Win
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