IT was another fantastic day for Mark Stinchcombe (@MarkStinchcombe) at SW19 on Monday. Can our tennis guru continue his superb run of results on Tuesday?
Coco Vandeweghe v Maria Sharapova | Tuesday 13.00 | BBC
Both Maria Sharapova and Coco Vandeweghe come into this match impressively yet to drop a set. Maria has had a comfortable route having faced no one in the world's top 30 and been no bigger than 1/16 in each match.
However, Coco has beaten world #11 Karolina Pliskova, #23 Sam Stosur and most notably last year’s Wimbledon semi-finalist and French Open finalist #6 Lucie Safarova. Wow.
Last year’s Hertogenbosch champion Coco loves the grass registering a 69% win ratio compared to her all court record of 57%. Her booming serve and heavy, aggressive groundstroke's make her a really dangerous opponent. Last year she hit 306 aces – the third highest on tour.
I think Coco’s got a great chance in her first meeting against Maria. She's served 37 aces this tournament (one less than Serena), with her fastest serve at 117mph (Serena's best is 123mph), won 79% of her first serve points (Victoria Azarenka is first with 83%) and won 58% of her second serve points (third most of players to play two or more matches). Again, impressive.
In contrast she's up against Maria who's serve is at the other end of the spectrum and this where the match could be won and lost. Maria's serve has always been questionable and has been no different here. She's hit 28 double faults, the most in the tournament (Coco has 14) and has managed just 11 aces.
Sharapova’s only winning 43% of her second serves, only successfully defended 57% of break points faced (in contrast to Vandeweghe's 71%) and this is where Coco could take advantage. Coco’s won 63 second serve return points, just three less than Serena. Vandeweghe has hit 20 more winners than Sharapova and also has a better winners-unforced errors ratio.
Sharapova has lost at prices of 1/3, 1/6, 4/11, 1/12 and 1/7 this year. As mentioned in my outright preview, her record isn't great here – this is only her second quarter final in the last nine years. She's lost as heavy favourite in all but one of those matches at odds of 2/9, 1/50, 1/7, 4/7, 1/5, 1/33 and 1/3. At 4/1 Coco Vandeweghe looks good value to me with Betway.
As already mentioned, Vandeweghe has won all four of her matches in straight sets against very good opponents. Four out of six of Maria's defeats this year have been 2-0 and seven of her last 10 losses here have also been 2-0. Vandeweghe can only win 2-1 or 2-0 and 9/1 (Betfair) on the latter looks another big price.
Meanwhile, the total double faults market looks like it has been priced up based upon the respective match odds when we know that shouldn't be the case. Maria has hit the most double faults in the tournament in 28 where as Vandeweghe has hit just half as many, 14. Therefore, take advantage of the 3/4 from 888 Sport on Sharapova +4.5 double faults.
Serena Williams v Victoria Azarenka | Tuesday 14.30 | BBC
This will be the pair's 20th meeting with Serena leading the head-to-head 16-3. Looking at their meetings, Serena tends to be more aggressive on her serve against Vika knowing what could comeback the other way.
This leads to Serena missing more of her first serves and her first serve % notably dropping. She averages 57% against Vika, which is down on her 60% tournament average.
Back under 62.5% on her first servicing % at 5/6 with SkyBet. This bet would have won in 15 of their 18 meetings!
Best Bets
Coco Vandeweghe v Maria Sharapova – Coco Vandeweghe to win (4/1 Betway)
Coco Vandeweghe v Maria Sharapova – Coco Vandeweghe to win 2-0 (9/1 Betfair)
Coco Vandeweghe v Maria Sharapova – Mario Sharapova +4.5 double faults (3/4 (888 Sport)
Serena Williams v Victoria Azarenka – Serena Williams under 62.5% first serve % (5/6 SkyBet)
