PDC World Darts Championship: Avoid MVG in outright market

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DARTS analyst Andrew Francis (@ALeagueAndy) shares his verdict on the outright market ahead of the upcoming 2019 PDC World Darts Championship at Alexandra Palace.

PDC World Darts Championship | 13th December 2018 – 1st January 2019 | Sky Sports

This looks like the most open World Championship in years with a number of players who should all be seriously considered to take home the trophy, and £500,000 prize, on January 1st.

I’ve broken down the competitors into three categories; The Fave, the Chancers and the outsiders.

The Fave is who you should be looking at to go all the way to the final and really stands a big chance of walking away with everything.

The Chancers should be considered each-way shots, those who stand a decent chance of making the final and giving you some decent profit.

The Outsiders are those less fancied but who I believe could make a decent impression on the tournament and see their odds shorted enough to give a good profit on an early cash out.

The Fave

I think Michael van Gerwn is way, way too short here and should be avoided, whilst Gary Anderson should be taken if you can find him at 4/1. He’s the man most likely to eliminate van Gerwen and has pedigree in this event.

He’s currently priced at 7/2, which is a tiny bit short for me but is the most solid tip for the win. A couple of bookies are offering new customer offers for Anderson to win the Worlds at 40/1 so check around and see if that’s something you can snap up.

The Chancers

My belief is that this tournament could be a coming of age for Michael Smith, the one where he really puts himself amongst the elite and proves his can finish with the best of them. He’s currently best priced at 16/1 with Spreadex and I think that’s a great price, especially considering his side of the draw.

Another man who benefits from being on the right side of the draw is Gerwyn Price. He’s proved he can handle the big events mentally and, if he can concentrate on his game properly, could be a decent shout at 40/1 (Sportingbet).

My third and final choice as an outside best is ‘SuperChin’, Daryl Gurney. He’s not on the the best side of the draw and looks like to have to overcome Anderson to make the semi-finals, as well as MvG to advance even further, but he’s proven he can beat both previously after defeating Anderson in the quarter-final of the World Grand Prix earlier this year and van Gerwen in the Players Championship final.

You can find him at 35/1 with Betfair and he’s a good e/w bet for me.

The Outsiders

There is a little bit of value to be found amongst the lesser-ranked players, those who could pull off a shock and go a little further than they would be expected to. They shouldn’t be considered to win the tournament but could give a good cash out, certainly enough to ensure the rest of your tournament is pure profit.

The first is reigning youth champion, Dimitri van den Bergh. He can be picked up at 80/1 with Spreadex but I think he could come in to nearer 30s with a favourable draw meaning a quarter-final place isn’t too much of a stretch for ‘The Dreammaker’.

Another man who benefits from a decent looking draw is Ryan Searle. I fancy him to beat Steve Burton (more on that in Wednesday’s Day 1 preview) and with a bit of luck behind him could shock Mensur Suljovic to make the 3rd Round. He’s best priced at 1000/1 (Bet365) and could see a big, big shortening if he does beat ‘The Gentle’ in the 2nd Round .

The final selection to try and make a little profit early on is Danny Noppert. He’s being offered at 250/1 at Betfair and I think he’s got the tools to beat the final seed Max Hopp in the 2nd Round and set-up a contest with van Gerwen in the third.

A top quality performance to beat the world number one would see his odds shorten considerably and should see a nice cash out offer as a result.

Best Bets

PDC World Darts Championship – Gary Anderson to win outright (7/2 Paddy Power)

PDC World Darts Championship – Michael Smith to win outight (16/1 each-way Spreadex)

PDC World Darts Championship – Gerwyn Price to win outright (40/1 each-way Sportingbet)

PDC World Darts Championship – Daryl Gurney to win outright (35/1 each-way Betfair)

PDC World Darts Championship – Dimitri van den Bergh to win outright (80/1 each-way Spreadex)

PDC World Darts Championship – Ryan Searle to win outright (1000/1 Bet365)

PDC World Darts Championship – Danny Noppert to win outright (250/1 each-way Betfair)

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