Football League: Bees may feel the sting of the Blues

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FOOTBALL LEAGUE analyst Mark O'Haire (@MarkOHaire) returns with his best bets from Saturday's EFL action.

Birmingham v Brentford | Saturday 29th December 2018, 15:00

Firstly, apologies for the late upload and also the brief analysis that will arrive alongside Saturday’s selections. I’m very pressed for time and therefore won’t be able to elaborate beyond my basic research and notes on each encounter. So here goes…

  • Birmingham have W9-D10-L5 this season with two defeats arriving in August.
  • Birmingham have lost one league game at home since March.
  • Birmingham have scored at least twice in 8/12 home games this season.
  • Birmingham have W8-D7-L3 against teams below them in the table.
  • Birmingham have risen above Brentford in the ratio rankings for shots in the box, xG and xG from open play.
  • Brentford have W0-D6-L6 away, failing to record a clean sheet.
  • Brentford have W1-D6-L9 since mid-September.
  • Brentford have W2-D6-L10 against teams above them in the table.
  • Collectively, Birmingham and Brentford’s home/away matches average 2.79 goals per-game with 19/24 featuring at least one goal.

I’m happy supporting Birmingham double chance and Over 1 Goal at 4/5 with Bet365’s Bet Builder. We’ll be paid out by correct scores such as 2-0, 2-1, 1-1, 2-2 etc. The only way we won’t make money is if Brentford win, or the match ends 0-0 or 1-0 in Birmingham’s favour.

Millwall v Nottingham Forest | Saturday 29th December 2018, 15:00

  • Millwall have recorded only three clean sheets this season but have scored in 11 of their 12 home matches.
  • Millwall have seen home games average 2.92 goals with both sides scoring on nine occasions, including eight of nine home meetings with teams above them.
  • Only five clubs have averaged more shots in the box than Millwall this season.
  • Nottingham Forest’s games are averaging 3.17 goals per-game away with seven of 12 seeing both sides score.
  • Nottingham Forest have only twice failed to score on the road this term.

Both Teams To Score appeals at 17/20 (William Hill).

Tranmere v Yeovil | Saturday 29th December 2018, 15:00

  • Tranmere have W8-D3-L1 at home since promotion, including W6-D0-L0 against the bottom-half, conceding just two goals.
  • Tranmere have kept clean sheets in seven of 12 home matches this season.
  • Tranmere are operating off a 56% xG open play ratio this term.
  • Yeovil have only won five of 22 games in League Two this season and managed W1-D6-L8 in their past 15 outings.
  • Yeovil have lost 20 of 36 away trips to top-half teams under Darren Way.
  • Yeovil have kept only three clean sheets since mid-September.
  • Yeovil are still in the midst of a semi-serious injury crisis.

Tranmere to win is 24/25 with Marathon.

Bookings treble

I was tempted to chuck a bookings selection into my three proposed plays on Saturday but instead I’m going to throw the three on the shortlist into a handy 7/2 treble with SkyBet.

I’m backing Nottingham Forest, Charlton and Bradford all to receive 20+ Bookings Points. If you’re new to Bookings Points, 10 points are dished out for a yellow card and 25 are given for a red. should a player receive two yellows and a subsequent red, 35 points are handed out. So for this section to cop, each team must receive at least two cards.

  • Nottingham Forest have been cautioned at least two times in 17/24 Championship games this season, including in 10 of 12 away trips. The Tricky Trees have picked up the most cards in the league this term, and commit the fourth-most fouls in the division.
  • Charlton have seen this selection pay-out in 18/24 League One outings in 2018/19, including in 11 of their 12 away days. The Addicks have collected the joint third-most cautions in the division and rank second for fouls committed.
  • Bradford have delivered at least two cards in 17/24 League One games this season, including in 10 of 12 away trips. The Bantams have collected the joint third-most cautions in the division.

Best Bets

Birmingham v Brentford – Birmingham double chance and Over 1 Goal (4/5 Bet365)

Millwall v Nottingham Forest – Both Teams To Score (17/20 William Hill)

Tranmere v Yeovil – Tranmere to win (24/25 Marathon)

Bookings treble – Nottingham Forest, Charlton and Bradford all to receive 20+ Bookings Points (7/2 SkyBet)

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About Author

After starting his career in newspaper journalism, Mark soon found his way into the online betting world, forging a career in content, social media and marketing production. With a huge passion for stats, the Football League and European football, Mark’s other interests include playing rugby, following his beloved QPR and travel.

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