PREMIER LEAGUE analyst Dan McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his thoughts on the Relegation market ahead of the 2018/19 Premier League season.
WLB Season Preview 2018/19 | Premier League: Relegation
With Cardiff odds-on for relegation and Huddersfield 5/4 for the drop, there is certainly value elsewhere in the Relegation market.
It's very likely that at least one of them do go down but I think a cigarette paper covers the ability of the next six or seven in the betting.
Fulham, Watford and Brighton are all 5/2 or shorter and while I would not be surprised if any of them dropped, I think Burnley at 4/1 with Bet365 and Bournemouth – 11/2 with Winner – offer us far greater value for our money.
Burnley (4/1 Bet365)
Burnley have defied the data boffins for the last couple of years and their seventh place finish last season was an incredible achievement.
It has brought Europa League football to Turf Moor and that will surely put a lot of pressure on an already thin squad.
Sean Dyche has yet to make a signing this summer and I just have a feeling that the feel-good factor in Lancashire will not last for too long.
Bournemouth (11/2 Sports Winner)
Eddie Howe's Bournemouth also look exposed to me. They finished 12th last term but Expected Goals models suggested that this flattered them and I don't think they've stengthened much over the summer.
Spanish left back Diego Rico and attacking midfielder David Crooks are the major arrivals and neither convince me that Bournemouth have enough in both boxes to enjoy a comfortable season. I simply fail to understand why they are as big as 11/2 when Brighton are 5/2.
This is my favourite ante-post selection as I am very confident that this will be the final Premier League season in Dorset for some time.
2018/19 Premier League – Burnley to be relegated (4/1 Bet365)
2018/19 Premier League – Bournemouth to be relegated (11/2 Sports Winner)