ANOTHER brilliantly researched article from Russ Butterworth (@cornerkicktips) as he searches for value in this weekend's corners market.
Millwall v Oldham | Saturday 15:00
Every game on my shortlist this week featured a team ‘with nothing to play for’ against a team still involved in either a promotion or relegation battle. This doesn’t make it easy as it’s hard to know how a team will react once their season is effectively over.
Punters are sure to be all over some very short priced favourites against these teams and while I can see the logic, we all know that football doesn't always work that way – Dagenham and Redbridge’s unlikely win in League Two at Plymouth last weekend being a case in point.
While Millwall took some time adjusting to life in League One, they have lost just three games in 20 since the turn of the year and the 3-1 victory at Bury last weekend took them into third – their highest league position of the season.
Automatic promotion is still mathematically possible and they are sure to throw everything at Oldham as they hope both Burton and Walsall slip up over the final two games.
Therefore, I am looking to the home team with an average of 6.38 team corners in their last eight homes to provide the lion’s share of the corners in this one.
Oldham have conceded an average of 7.38 on the road in their last eight and an eye watering 9.75 over their last four so should they prove a tough nut to crack there is certainly scope for the home team to rack up the corners.
Oldham were in the relegation zone five points from safety when John Sheridan took over in January but have showed steady improvement and managed to secure their status in the division with a 1-0 win against Crewe last time out.
The teams home form has been a revelation with six wins in their last eight homes and with just two defeats in their last 10 away from Boundary Park, they should have what it takes to at least put up a fight.
Over their last eight away games, Oldham have won an average of five corners and should they hit this number on Saturday, I’d be very surprised if our bet didn’t win.
Millwall have conceded at least four corners in their last eight homes and no less than seven in four of those games so I’m confident the Latics, looking to sustain their momentum, will get the opportunities to contribute to a decent corner count for the game.
Millwall v Oldham – Over 10 Corners (5/6 Bet365)
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