BETTING expert Mark Stinchcombe (@MarkStinchcombe) returns to preview Monday Night Football’s offering between Southampton and Manchester United.
Southampton v Manchester United | Monday 20.00 | Sky Sports 1
In this column last week, I entertained the fact that Southampton might not be as good as the market thinks. In the space of a week they have been comprehensively beaten at home 3-0 by 10-man Manchester City and only an inspired Fraser Forster kept the score down in a 1-0 loss at Arsenal. That now means Saints have lost all four matches against last season’s top-six, scoring just one goal.
There have been a lot of superlatives thrown at Graziano Pelle since he arrived for £8m in the summer but he's actually only scored six goals in Saints' 14 games and has failed to find the net in his last six.
Southampton will be without Morgan Schneiderlin, Toby Alderweireld and Jack Cork on Monday night, which means the unfancied Maya Yoshida will step into their backline.
Schneiderlin is a huge loss. Without the French international, Southampton are W2-D3-L7 since their return to the Premier League. He is a key feature in protecting the defence winning the fifth most tackles in the league (48). In fact, Schneiderlin has made more tackles and interceptions than any other player since 2012 (537). He also sets the tempo for his side offensively, averaging the sixth most passes per game – 879 in total. To put it into context, this is the same amount as David Silva!
Manchester United seem to have played themselves into a bit of form after an unconvincing start. Despite seemingly picking up a fresh injury every week, it's now four straight wins and just one loss in nine, a narrow 1-0 defeat by last season’s champions City (W6-D2).
United captain Wayne Rooney will be fit to face the Saints, whom he has five goals in five starts, and is in great form with nine goals in 14 games for club and country.
Under Ferguson, the Red Devils were 4/7 when they won this match two seasons ago and after the Moyes debacle, Ryan Giggs’ team came here as 9/5 shots. On Monday night, Untied go to St Mary's as slight favourites at 13/8. Based on all the evidence, I think it's safe to say they should be closer to that 4/7 than the 9/5.
With the favouritism towards Southampton by the market, their record v better sides and key absentees, let's take advantage by backing Man Utd on the 0 ball Asian Handicap (essentially Draw No Bet) at 17/20 with BetVictor.
Only 15 players have been used by Ronald Koeman this season, the lowest in the division, and after facing Man City and Arsenal in the last 8 days, Man Utd might be too much for them to cope with.
I normally try and put up a bigger priced selection up too, and the 4/1 on the Rooney Wincast with William Hill will tempt some but if he starts out of position again at left-back/left wing-back as expected, I prefer Ashley Young to be shown a card at 3/1 with Betfred.
In his five starts this season, Young has been booked three times already. Up against the quick Shane Long and the exciting, attacking Nathanial Clyne bombing on, Young will have his hands full. The added bonus of this bet is we get Young's ability to throw himself to floor without contact built in as well.
Best Bets
Southampton v Manchester United – Manchester United 0 in the Asian Handicap market (17/20 BetVictor)
Southampton v Manchester United – Ashley Young to be shown a card (3/1 Betfred)
Get Manchester United at 7/1 To Beat Southampton
Betfair are offering all new customers the chance to back Manchester United at 7/1 tonight as opposed to the advertised 6/4.
If they fail to record three points at St Mary's, Betfair will give you your money back!
- Open an account with Betfair using this special link – Betfair
- Place your FIRST BET of £10 on Manchester United to beat Southampton at the current price.
- If Manchester United win, you’ll receive your winnings at full-time with your additional winnings credited within 24 hours at odds of 7/1.
- If your bet loses, Betfair will refund your losing stake in the form of a free bet within 24 hours.
