MARK O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) had another profitable weekend with his Football League bets and is on the hunt for more winners from the Boxing Day fixtures.
Bournemouth v Fulham | Boxing Day 15.00
What a story it is surrounding Bournemouth and their charge towards the top of the Championship table. Eddie Howe and his merry Cherries have worked wonders over the past few years and I’m desperately hoping they can last the distance.
I certainly wouldn’t bet against Bournemouth dropping off – I’ve learnt that lesson with Burnley last season – and Howe’s men will take some stopping. They’ve now won nine from an unbeaten run of 12 league games and notched a whopping 50 goals already this campaign.
Delving a little deeper, you can see the Cherries have hit two or more goals in 10 of those aforementioned 12 matches but actually leaked nine goals themselves in their last five Championship outings – that’s lead to eight of their last nine featuring Over 2.5 Goals and six of their last eight winning in the Both Teams To Score column.
So I’m going to revisit that Bet365 market on Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score at a handsome price of 21/20. This bet would have banked in 6/11 (54%) of Bournemouth home games and in six of their last eight outings.
Fulham have turned the corner under Kit Symons’ charge and their 4-0 walloping of Sheffield Wednesday shows the Cottagers are on an upward curve. It’s only three losses from 14 league games now and they’ve managed to net in all bar two of those matches.
What’s more, nine of the last 10 Fulham fixtures have produced Over 2.5 Goals with six also delivering for Both Teams To Score backers whilst a very healthy 8/11 (72%) of the Londoners road games have seen Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams Score.
Scunthorpe United v Rochdale | Boxing Day 15.00
Another side looking up are Scunthorpe. Mark Robins’ arrival has coincided with the Iron’s best run of form this season, with just one defeat in nine (W4-D4-L1) but crucially for us punters, the goals continue to flow.
For a side struggling in the bottom-four of League One for the most part of 2014/15, Scunthorpe can boast an impressive goalscoring record – nothing in 16/20 (80%) of their league fixtures. They’re also sitting in the top-half of the ‘shots-on-target’ table for the third tier – no mean feat.
Having failed to net in their first two games at Glanford Park this campaign, the Iron have scored in seven of their last eight in front of their home supporters and in 13 of their last 14. But defensively, Scunny continue to struggle with just one clean sheet to their name all season and a big fat zero when playing at home.
Of course, those trends have led to a glorious amount of winners for goals-based punters. Scunthorpe have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 14/20 (70%) League One matches and Both Teams Score in 15/20 (75%) games.
So the 21/20 from Bet365 for another Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score bet is already a runner – it’s banked in 12/20 (60%) of the Iron’s league games this season.
As for Rochdale, I’ve touched on their tendencies to cut loose on their travels a few times before it’s worth revisiting those stats. The Dale have already won six of their 10 road games (W6-D1-L3) and netted at least twice in seven of those outings (even scoring three or more goals in six).
But like Scunthorpe, Keith Hill’s charges will always give their opponents a chance. Just five clean sheets from 21 matches is testament to that whilst eight of their last nine have featured Over 2.5 Goals.
Just taking away games we can see that Dale have produced winners in the Over 2.5 Goals column in 8/10 (80%) games, Both Teams To Score in 6/10 (60%) games and 6/10 (60%) winners in the crucial Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score market we’re after.
York City v Accrington Stanley | Boxing Day 15.00
I’m always on the hunt for a chance to oppose the bookmakers and I think I’ve found just the bet for Boxing Day in League Two. To me, York v Accrington is one of the first games on the BTTS coupon to tick off but Betfred are offering almost even-money on the outcome at 10/11. I’m hooked.
Starting with York and since Russ Wilcox’s appointment, the Minsterman have continued to toil. Suffering from a play-off hangover? Perhaps. But they’re certainly lacking the solidity that inspired their remarkable run to the top-seven of League Two last season.
York can only lay claim to keeping a paltry four clean sheets from 21 games in 2014/15 and for a low-scoring team, that’s always going to be an uphill battle. Fortunately for us, it gives us a great angle when looking for Both Teams To Score winners.
Wilcox has made the Minstermen into a more fluid side going forward and the stats also show that York have fired in the third-most ‘shots-on-target’ in the fourth tier this season.
York have now scored in seven of their last eight and even notched two or more goals in three of their last four. With their wretched clean sheet record, we’ve had six Both Teams To Score winners in their previous eight games.
Accrington are the Boxing Day visitors and John Coleman’s team continue to upset the odds, riding high in the top-half of the table. That’s based mainly on a fierce home record but Stanley have bagged wins in three of their last six on the road.
However, it’s Accy’s penchant for high-scoring games we’re looking to take advantage of here. The visitors have failed to score just once in their last 11 games and not kept a clean sheet since the first week of October!
It’s now nine successive BTTS winners in Accrington’s matches whilst 7/10 (70%) of their away league fixtures have also banked in the same market.
With neither side able to boast a fearsome defence, we should get involved at a decent price on a repeat of Both Teams To Score at 10/11 with Betfred.
Best Bets
Bournemouth v Fulham – Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score (21/20 Bet365)
Scunthorpe United v Rochdale – Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score (21/20 Bet365)
York City v Accrington Stanley – Both Teams To Score (10/11 Betfred)
1 Comment
Interesting. Always thought York were good for low scoring games. still yet to win at home too.