THE excellent Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) runs the rule over England’s friendly fixture with Switzerland on Tuesday night.
England v Switzerland | Tuesday 11th September 2018, 20:00 | Sky Sports
In terms of outcome bias, nothing quite competes with the post-match analysis of international football.
England’s 2-1 defeat to Spain on Saturday night is now a ‘huge wake up call’ to Gareth Southgate. Had Danny Welbeck ‘goal’ not been wrongly disallowed, I am sure it would have been a a hard –earned point.
La Roja dominated possession at Wembley, but not to the same levels they have in previous encounters. David De Gea was the busier of the two goalkeepers (England won the shots on-target count 6-4) and it is worth noting that Spain’s winner came from a set piece: an area of apparent prowess for England.
This is not to say that The Three Lions are legitimate contenders at world level but I don’t believe that the gap is as vast as many make out and I think several analysts have proved that possession is well down the hierarchy in terms of statistics that matter.
Simply put, therefore, I believe that England are simply too big at 3/4 (William Hill) to beat Switzerland on Tuesday night. The Swiss enjoyed a comfortable 6-0 victory over Iceland at the weekend, but one result cannot carry greater significance than the long-term trend of Switzerland proving themselves to be adept at qualifying for major tournaments but unable to go beyond the Last 16 of such competitions.
You have to go back to 1981 to find the last time they beat England. England have won seven of the 10 matches since, including four of their six at home. As well as backing them outright, I also like the look of England to win and Both Teams To Score, which is 10/3 with Bet365.
England have kept just two clean sheets in their last 11 matches but have only failed to score twice in their last 12 – both against Belgium in pretty inconsequential matches at the World Cup. Switzerland have scored in eight of their nine games this calendar year, including against Brazil and Spain.
Ultimately, I think England will have too much for them, but think they can find the net. I would recommend 30% of your usual stake on this bet so if England win and do keep a clean sheet, you are still in profit.
England v Switzerland – England to win (3/4 William Hill)
England v Switzerland – England to win and Both Teams To Score (10/3 Bet365)