NON-LEAGUE expert Paul Maddison (@LouthBigDog) shares his favourite fancies from the final weekend of the regular National League betting coupon.
The regular season in the National League reaches it’s conclusion on Saturday lunchtime (obviously still the play offs to sort out) and I think I’ve found three decent looking bets to hopefully finish the season on a high.
Barrow v Chester | Saturday 28th April 2018, 12:30
This is a massive game for Barrow at the foot of the table as they need to equal or better Woking’s result against Dover, or if Woking draw, Barrow will stay up as long as they don’t lose by 10 goals. I’ve witnessed my own team in this situation far to many times in similar situations over the years and it nearly always leads to a tense and tight game. With no one wanting to make a mistake games are cagey and tend to be played out mainly in the middle of the park with chances few and far between at either end.
They take on already relegated Chester who are the divisions lowest scorers this season. Barrow themselves have had a mini revival conceded just twice in their last 4, with 3 of their opponents battling for play off spots in those 4 games. Barrow also have the third worst record of goals scored at home this season. Their last four games have all gone under 2.5 goals with just four goals scored in those games.
With this being a tense game between two teams who have struggled in front of goal this season I’m going for a low scoring game. Under 2.5 goals is available at 11/10 with SunBets.
Torquay v Ebbsfleet | Saturday 28th April 2018, 12:30
At the end of last month Torquay looked like they could be putting on a run to match the greatest escapes of all time, but their form dropped and have since been the 3rd team to be relegated from the league. They have now lost seven of their last 10 at home including a 4-3 loss to bottom of the league Guiseley who were down to 10 men and had conceded a penalty after four minutes of the game. The penalty was missed and Guiseley went straight up the other end and scored. After the game the Torquay manager came out and said it was his lowest point so far at the club.
Ebbsfleet have timed their play off push to perfection with just one loss in 13 and have won five of their last six away games. Technically they only need a point here to guarantee a play off spot, but they are a much better team than their opponents, in better form and the higher they can finish the better the draw will be in the play offs for them.
Tranmere v Hartlepool | Saturday 21st April 2018, 12:30
Tranmere played their reserve time against in form Solihull Moors in midweek losing 2-1. After playing quite a few games in the run in to make up for postponements and the fact they had secured second place that was probably a wise move by Micky Mellon. Although in reality this match is still a dead rubber but the Tranmere boss has said he will name a full strength team here.
Their first play off game will be at home next Saturday so they will have a full week to prepare whereas their opponents will have had a tough game in midweek. I believe momentum plays a big part for teams entering the play offs so I’m sure Tranmere will look to be finishing the season on a high. Taking out that game against Solihull and a 5-0 cup loss to League One Peterborough, they have won 12 of their last 13 home games, their only loss coming against League Champions Macclesfield.
Hartlepool have had a bit of a revival recently to pull themselves away from danger, but they really have nothing to play for here and have won just two of their last 15 away games, in those 15 games they have conceded two or more in nine of them, whilst Tranmere have scored two or more in 11 over the same period.
A home win is available at a stand out price of 17/20 with SkyBet.
Going to step on the toes of one of the big bosses here and mention something I’ve noticed in a game involving my team in the Football League. Grimsby’s top scorer Mitch Rose has netted in his last 3 games (all penalties) and should have 5 in 5 after missing sitters in the 2 previous games to them. It’s a vital game for the Mighty Mariners but won’t be an easy game against promotion chasing Notts County, but County have kept just 2 clean sheets in their last 20 away games. Rose has been chalked up at 16/1 1st Scorer with Bet365 (generally around 13/2 7/1 mark) and 6/1 anytime (generally around 9/4 mark) with the same company.
Barrow v Chester – Under 2.5 Goals (11/10 Sun Bets)
Torquay v Ebbsfleet – Ebbsfleet to win (10/11 William Hill)
Tranmere v Hartlepool – Tranmere to win (17/20 Sky Bet)