Bundesliga – Underrated Swabians look ripe for Friday night plucking

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STATS expert Stats Bet (@statsbet) takes an analytical look at Friday night’s Bundesliga action, pinpointing the value bets according to the numbers.

Stuttgart v Leverkusen | Friday 8th December 2017, 19:30 | BT Sport

Stuttgart are looking to continue their unbeaten run at the Mercedes-Benz Arena on Friday night.

Hannes Wolf’s side are a formidable force on home soil where they remain unbeaten in 2017 (W12-D3-L0). The foundations are built on a solid defence that has seen them face just 66 shots with 19 testing goalkeeper Ron Zieler, conceding two goals. This ranks them in the top six for the three defensive metrics as hosts.

The Swabians are also potent in attack having out-shot their opponents in 83% of games this season, which sees them rank in the top eight for both Shot Ratio and Shots On-Target Ratio, a goal ratio of 82% they currently sit third in the home table with 16 points from a possible 18, with an Expected Goals supremacy against Friday night’s opponents of 1.54.

Leverkusen are currently ninth in the Bundesliga (W5-D6-L3) and are on the league’s longest unbeaten run. They currently rank in the top three for both Shot Ratio and Shots On-Target Ratio but the visitors away form has only seen them pick up eight points from a possible 21, collecting one clean sheet in the process with an average of 1.50 goals per-game conceded.

Heiko Herrlich’s troops will also be without attacking fullback Wendell who is suspended and influential midfielder Charles Aranguiz for the visit and with an Expected Goals supremacy of 0.88 against the Swabians, it could be a tough night for the visitors.

With Stuttgart averaging 2.67 points per-game at home and frailties in the Leverkusen defence, I will be backing the hosts to take all three points at 61/25 (Marathon) with a wee wager on the HT-FT result too at 9/2 (Ladbrokes).

Best Bets

Stuttgart v Leverkusen – Stuttgart to win (61/25 Marathon)

Stuttgart v Leverkusen – Stuttgart/Stuttgart (9/2 Ladbrokes)

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