Stats – Foals can prosper in Saturday’s Bundesliga bash

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STATS expert Stats Bet (@statsbet) takes an analytical look at Saturday’s Bundesliga action, pinpointing the value bets according to the numbers.

Borussia Monchengladbach v Bayer Leverkusen | Saturday 21st October 2017, 14:30

Analysing the market perception of Borussia Monchengladbach’s match with Bayer Leverkusen, the bookmakers believe there’s a 40% chance of the hosts claiming top honours, a 35% chance Leverkusen depart with maximum points and 26% chance that the spoils are shared.

With the market making the Foals favourites, I agree it’s good to have them onside for the Borussia-Park contest.

The data

The 40% implied probability on Gladbach situates Dieter Heckling’s side within the home implied probability range of 36% and 50% – 43% of home teams within such odds parameters have landed victory, equating to odds of 2.32 (just over 13/10).

The 35% implied probability of Leverkusen situates Heiko Herrlich’s team within the away probability range of 25% and 36%. Subsequently, travelling teams within that parameter have lost 43% of matches, equating to odds of 2.32 (again, just over 13/10).

Gladbach have started their campaign well (W4-D2-L2) to sit in fifth. Heckling’s men currently have a goal ratio of 0.71 at home, so it’s no wonder visitors have struggled when coming to Borussia-Park with Borussia shipping only two goals in their opening four fixtures and collecting nine points from a possible 12.

Leverkusen, who appointed Herrlich in the summer, won’t be happy with the start they have made, picking up two triumphs from their opening eight. They have struggled on their travels (W0-D1-L3), conceding nine goals and having a goal ratio of 0.31 on the road.

Die Werkself will be in for a tough time in Gladbach with the hosts boasting an xG supremacy of 1.03 over their visitors and I fully expect the Borussians to claim all three points.

Best Bets

Borussia Monchengladbach v Bayer Leverkusen – Borussia Monchengladbach to win (8/5 Stan James)

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