STATS expert Stats Bet (@statsbet) takes an analytical look at Sunday’s Bundesliga action, pinpointing the value bets according to the numbers.
Freiburg v Hertha Berlin | Sunday 22nd October 2017, 14:30 | BT Sport
Freiburg welcome Hertha Berlin to the Schwarzwald-Stadion on Sunday and it’s good to have the hosts onside at 9/5 (Betway).
Christian Stretch’s side are tough opposition to face on home soil, returning W11-D5-L5 from their last 21 games and remaining unbeaten in 76% of those matches.
This season has started in similar fashion at the Schwarzwald-Stadion (W1-D3-L0) despite the Black Forest clubs facing sides within the current top-10, including Dortmund and Hoffenheim. So Stretch will be pleased with progress.
Hertha’s horrid road record
The Berlin boys don’t travel so well, managing just W3-D4-L13 from their last 21 games. More recently Pal Dardai’s men have only picked up one point from their last five fixtures in all competitions.
Currently rating in the bottom-half for both shot ratio and shots on-target ratio, and a goal ratio of 0.20, it’s certainly been a struggle for the visitors. And with the added distraction of the Europa league, this will be their third game in eight days.
With hosts boasting an xG supremacy of 1.37 against Sunday’s opponents and the visitors possessing a 0.63 xG supremacy, I will be siding with the hosts to take all three points.
Freiburg v Hertha Berlin – Freiburg to win (9/5 Betway)