CARD king Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) is back to attack Saturday’s Premier League clash between Bournemouth and Burnley.
Bournemouth v Burnley | Saturday 15:00
End of season matches can be tricky for card punters with many players already ‘on the beach’.
This weekend Bournemouth welcome Burnley to Dean Court and this looks like one of those fixtures that could resemble a testimonial now that both sides have secured their Premier League status for next term.
No team has collected fewer yellow cards in the top-flight than Bournemouth. The Cherries average 1.58 cards in the league and this reduces to 1.40 in home matches.
Burnley arrive on the south coast averaging 1.80 cards per-game in the league. They also average 1.80 cards per-game on their travels.
Man in the middle
The intensity should surely drop in this fixture and I note that Lee Probert is the man in charge.
Probert missed all of last season with a back injury. He has been working his way back this term mainly through the lower divisions. He averages a paltry 2.50 cards per-game this term.
He has been reintroduced to the Premier League in recent weeks and took charge of Watford v Sunderland, issuing four cards that day. Last weekend he officiated the drab 0-0 affair between Stoke and West Ham and showed just one yellow card.
The betting angle
I noticed that Probert has given zero cards in 7/29 matches in 2016/17. That is a 17/2 chance with William Hill this weekend.
I’m backing under 3.5 cards though with Bet365 at a generous looking 4/5.
Bournemouth v Burnley – Under 3.5 Cards (4/5 Bet365)