CHRIS Graham (@chrisgraham79) has dipped into the stats and trends and picked out five favourites to avoid this week at Cheltenham.
Supreme Novices Hurdle | Tuesday 13:30 | ITV1
Trend: 11 of the past 13 winners had raced in at least four hurdle races.
Favourite: 3/1 Melon has run just once over hurdles.
Alternatives: 7/2 Ballyandy (four hurdle runs)
Neptune Novices Hurdle | Wednesday 13:30 | ITV1
Trend: 26 of the last 27 winners of this race had at least three runs over hurdles.
Favourite: 15/8 favourite Neon Wolf has just two hurdle runs to his name.
Alternatives: 3/1 Bacardys (3 runs), 7/1 Lets Dance (4 runs) and 10/1 Messire Des Obeaux (8 runs).
RSA Novices Chase | Wednesday 14:10 | ITV1
Trend: The last 13 winners of this race has placed at worst in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 chase.
Trend: Seven year olds have won eight of the last nine RSA Chases.
Favourite: 4/1 fav Might Bite has won just two chases. Both were low-key events at Doncaster, he was placed in a similar level event at Ffos Las and has run in just one Graded race where he fell. Might Bite is also 8 years old. It’s 13 years since a horse that age won.
Alternatives: 13/2 Alpha Des Obeaux (Won a Grade 3, 7 years old), 7/1 Acapella Bourgeois (Won a Grade 2, 7 years old), 12/1 Royal Vacation (Won a Grade 1, 7 years old)
Cheltenham Gold Cup | Friday 15:30 | ITV1
Trend: 20 of the last 22 winners were aged between seven and nine.
Favourite: 7/2 Cue Card is 11 years old.
Alternatives: 7/2 Native River (7 years old), 4/1 Djakadam (8 years old), Sizing John (7 years old).
Foxhunter Challenge Cup | Friday 16:10 | ITV1
Trend: 23 of the last 25 winners were aged 10 or younger.
Trend: 23 of the last 30 winners won on their last appearance before the Festival.
Favourite: 6/4 On The Fringe is 12 years old and failed to win his prep race.
Alternatives: 4/1 Wonderful Charm is 9 years old and won his prep race. 11/2 Ask The Weatherman is 8 years old and won his prep race.
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