Cheltenham Festival: Five favourites to avoid, according to the stats

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CHRIS Graham (@chrisgraham79) has dipped into the stats and trends and picked out five favourites to avoid this week at Cheltenham.

Supreme Novices Hurdle | Tuesday 13:30 | ITV1

Trend: 11 of the past 13 winners had raced in at least four hurdle races.

Favourite: 3/1 Melon has run just once over hurdles.

Alternatives: 7/2 Ballyandy (four hurdle runs)

Neptune Novices Hurdle | Wednesday 13:30 | ITV1

Trend: 26 of the last 27 winners of this race had at least three runs over hurdles.

Favourite: 15/8 favourite Neon Wolf has just two hurdle runs to his name.

Alternatives: 3/1 Bacardys (3 runs), 7/1 Lets Dance (4 runs) and 10/1 Messire Des Obeaux (8 runs).

RSA Novices Chase | Wednesday 14:10 | ITV1

Trend: The last 13 winners of this race has placed at worst in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 chase.

Trend: Seven year olds have won eight of the last nine RSA Chases.

Favourite: 4/1 fav Might Bite has won just two chases. Both were low-key events at Doncaster, he was placed in a similar level event at Ffos Las and has run in just one Graded race where he fell. Might Bite is also 8 years old. It’s 13 years since a horse that age won.

Alternatives: 13/2 Alpha Des Obeaux (Won a Grade 3, 7 years old), 7/1 Acapella Bourgeois (Won a Grade 2, 7 years old), 12/1 Royal Vacation (Won a Grade 1, 7 years old)

Cheltenham Gold Cup | Friday 15:30 | ITV1

Trend: 20 of the last 22 winners were aged between seven and nine.

Favourite: 7/2 Cue Card is 11 years old.

Alternatives: 7/2 Native River (7 years old), 4/1 Djakadam (8 years old), Sizing John (7 years old).

Foxhunter Challenge Cup | Friday 16:10 | ITV1

Trend: 23 of the last 25 winners were aged 10 or younger.

Trend: 23 of the last 30 winners won on their last appearance before the Festival.

Favourite: 6/4 On The Fringe is 12 years old and failed to win his prep race.

Alternatives: 4/1 Wonderful Charm is 9 years old and won his prep race. 11/2 Ask The Weatherman is 8 years old and won his prep race.

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Chris first got interested in betting back in 2000 when he began working in betting shops throughout Scotland. He has remained in the industry ever since, specialising in marketing and PR roles. Outside of betting, his interests are listening to Blur and following Queen Of The South.

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