IT’S back to the MLS for card king Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) this weekend. He’s found a bet in Colombus to support.
Colombus Crew v Portland Timbers | Saturday 23:30
There are just three MLS matches this weekend due to international matches for USA and Canada. After their opener against Orlando was postponed due to bad weather, New England play their first home game this term against whipping boys Minnesota and New York Red Bulls host a Real Salt Lake side who sacked their manager this week. Expect two comfortable home victories.
The final match on Saturday promises to be much more competitive as Portland Timbers put their 100% winning record on the line when they visit Columbus Crew.
I watched Crew’s victory at DC United last week and was impressed, in particular, by their speed on the counter attack. This should be a good game.
Low foul to card ratio
Romanian born Silviu Petrescu makes his 2017 season debut in this fixture. He averaged 4.56 cards per game in 2016. His foul to card ratio in 2015 was 6:1 which was well below the average of 8:1. This trend continued in 2016 with him issuing a card every seven fouls. Again this was below the average of eight.
This season Columbus average 2.38 cards per game and the Timbers 2.67. That suggests around five total cards can be expected here. The head to head meetings between these two clubs also indicates cards with 4.5 per game being the average over the past six encounters.
I have been keeping a record of the number of cards issued per week. It has been steadily rising. Week 1 saw an average of 3.9 per game. This increased to 4.4 in Week 2 and last week rose again to 5.09 per match.
When compiling my notes earlier this week I had expected this one to be chalked up at under or over 4.5 cards. However, 3.5 is the line and what’s more it is odds against the ‘overs’. As we look to continue our 100% record in MLS the over 3.5 cards at 28/25 must be backed with 888sport.
Colombus Crew v Portland Timbers – Over 3.5 Cards (28/25 888 Sport)