Football League: U’s to take advantage of ill Magpies

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FOOTBALL LEAGUE expert Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) has enjoyed a profitable week in domestic action. Here he highlights his favourite three selections from the weekend’s action.

Wigan v Ipswich | Saturday 15:00

Wigan

  • Wigan have failed to score in 5/6 Championship games as well as a club record run of 5 consecutive home games without a goal.
  • Wigan have seen 13/21 (62%) matches feature Under 2.5 Goals and only 8/21 (38%) produce Both Teams To Score winners.
  • Wigan have failed to score in 7/10 (70%) home games and 11/21 (52%) games since promotion.
  • Wigan have kept 6/21 (29%) clean sheets this season, including 3/10 (30%) at home.
  • Wigan have posted an average expected total goals rate of just 2.28 per-game, of which their own expected goals rate stands at just 0.91 per-game – the second-worst in the league.
  • Wigan have switched to a 4-1-4-1 formation under Warren Joyce, playing winger Yanic Wildschut up front ahead of three orthodox strikers.
  • Under Joyce, Wigan are averaging an expected goals scored rate of 0.73 per-game with the total expected goals rate standing at 1.91 per-game.
  • No Championship team has scored fewer goals (16) or fewer home goals (6).
  • Only Derby’s (1.61 per-game) matches have seen fewer total goals than Wigan’s (1.90 per-game).
  • No Championship side has attempted fewer shots from inside the opposition penalty box than Wigan (5.95 per-game).

Ipswich

  • Ipswich have failed to score in 4/6 away games, managing just 3 goals.
  • Ipswich have seen 14/21 matches feature Under 2.5 Goals and only 7/21 (33%) produce Both Teams To Score winners.
  • Ipswich have failed to score in 6/10 (60%) home games and 10/21 (48%) games this season.
  • Ipswich have kept 8/21 (38%) clean sheets this season, including 3/10 (30%) away.
  • Ipswich have posted an average expected total goals rate of just 2.09 per-game, of which their own expected goals rate stands at just 0.80 per-game – a league-low.
  • Only Wigan (16) have scored fewer goals than Ipswich (19) and no Championship team has scored fewer goals away (5).
  • Only Derby’s (1.61 per-game) and Wigan’s (1.90 per-game) matches have seen fewer total goals than Ipswich’s (1.95 per-game).
  • Only Wigan have attempted fewer shots from inside the opposition penalty box than Ipswich (6.14 per-game) and no Championship team has created fewer clear-cut chances than the visitors.

Back Both Teams To Score ‘No’ at 31/40 (BetVictor) – the odds imply a percentage success rate of 56.3%.

This selection has proven profitable in 27/42 (64%) of the two clubs’ collective league games and in 15/20 (75%) respective home/away fixtures.

Oldham v Southend | Saturday 15:00

Oldham

  • Oldham have won only 3/20 games under Steve Robinson, including only 1/9 at home.
  • Oldham have failed to score in 12/20 games, including 7/9 at home.
  • Oldham drew 1-1 at Oxford last weekend, playing for an hour with 10 men – they scored with their only shot on-target and were out-shot 23-3.
  • Oldham are without suspended Ousmane Fane whilst striker Billy McKay is struggling to be fit.
  • Only 3 League One sides have attempted fewer shots than Oldham.

Southend

  • Southend stretched their unbeaten run to 9 in League One when easily beating Coventry last weekend (W5-D4-L0).
  • Southend have now conceded just 4 goals in those 9 unbeaten games since switching to a back-four, making only 4 enforced team changes.
  • Southend striker Nile Ranger has signed a contract extension until 2020 – Southend are unbeaten with him in the team (W6-D3-L0).
  • Southend have only lose 1 game away since September and have suffered just 1 defeat in 12 games, conceding 2 or more goals once in that spell.

Back Southend +0.25 on the Asian Handicap (8/11 BetVictor) where we’ll make money should the Shrimpers avoid defeat

We’ll make a half-stakes profit should the game end in a draw and a full-stakes pay-out if Southend win – if the visitors score, I can’t see them losing.

Colchester v Notts County | Saturday 15:00

Colchester

  • Colchester have W2-D1-L0 since switching to a 3-5-2 formation, keeping 3/3 clean sheets.
  • Colchester won 3-0 against Cheltenham, 4-0 against Crewe before last weekend’s 0-0 at Mansfield.
  • Colchester have posted season-long shot ratio figures of 51.31% – the eighth best in the division.
  • Colchester have posted season-long shots on-target ratio figures of 56.36% – the third best in the division behind Portsmouth and Luton.
  • Only 4 sides have scored more goals than Colchester at home with the Essex side averaging 1.88 goals per-game at home.
  • Colchester have W6-D6-L4 against sides outside of the top-four.

Notts County

  • Notts County have W0-D1-L5 in their last 6 games, failing to score on 5 occasions and conceding 13 goals.
  • Notts County managed only 4 shots when going down to Wycombe last week.
  • Notts County have W1-D2-L6 since September in League Two, keeping 1 clean sheet and scoring only 6 goals.
  • Notts County are without suspended captain Michael O’Connor whilst manager John Sheridan and striker Jon Stead have been among the victims of a recent sickness bug in the squad.
  • Notts County are posting the third worst shot ratio in the league (44.32%), only ahead of Hartlepool, Crawley and Morecambe.
  • Notts County are posting the second-worst shots on-target ratio return in the league (40.48%), only ahead of Crawley.
  • Only 3 clubs have conceded more away goals than Notts County – they’re leaking on average 1.88 goals per-game away.

Back Colchester -0.50 in the Asian Handicap market – the same selection as a home win, but at better odds (68/67 BetVictor).

Best Bets

Wigan v Ipswich – Both Teams To Score ‘No’ (31/40 BetVictor)

Oldham v Southend – Southend +0.25 Asian Handicap (8/11 BetVictor)

Colchester v Notts County – Colchester -0.50 Asian Handicap (68/67 BetVictor)

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About Author

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After starting his career in newspaper journalism, Mark soon found his way into the online betting world, forging a career in content, social media and marketing production. With a huge passion for stats, the Football League and European football, Mark’s other interests include playing rugby, following his beloved QPR and travel.

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