Football League: Rams to pile more misery on fluttering Canaries

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SIXTEEN winners from his last 20 Football League weekend fancies, Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) returns with three more for Saturday.

Derby v Norwich | Saturday 15:00

Derby

  • Derby have scored 2+ goals in each of their last 3 games (won 3/3).
  • Derby have fired in 55 shots in their last 3 games – an average of 18.33 per-game.
  • Derby have landed 26 attempts on-target in their last 3 games – an average of 8.66 per-game.
  • Only Newcastle (87), Barnsley (78) and Nottingham Forest (78) have landed more shots on-target in the Championship this season.

Norwich

  • Norwich have lost 4/4 games, conceding 11 goals.
  • Norwich have failed to keep a clean sheet in 9 away games, conceding 20 goals – only Rotherham (28) have shipped more goals away.
  • Norwich have kept only 2/17 clean sheets since relegation – only Rotherham (41) and Nottingham Forest (30) have conceded more goals (29).
  • Norwich have W1-D2-L6 against clubs in 13th and above, conceding 2+ goals in 6/9.
  • Only 7 Championship sides have faced more shots on-target than Norwich.
  • Norwich are without suspended defender Martin Olsson and midfielder Graham Dorrans.

Back Derby to score Over 1.5 Goals (16/13 888)

Walsall v Southend | Saturday 15:00

Walsall

  • Walsall’s home matches average more goals per-game than any side in League One – 3.55 goals per-game.
  • Walsall’s 9 home games have featured 7/9 Over 2.5 Goals winners and 8/9 Both Teams To Score winners.
  • Walsall have recorded 10/14 Over 2.5 Goals winners at home under John Whitney with 12/14 also paying-out for Both Teams To Score backers.
  • Walsall have scored in all 14 home fixtures under John Whitney.

Southend

  • Southend are just two points off the play-offs having W6-D4-L2 in their last 12 games.
  • Southend have scored in 10/12 matches with Simon Cox and Nile Ranger forming a flourishing partnership in attack.
  • Southend have fired in 37 shots in their last 2 games and are unbeaten in 7 (W4-D3-L0) when playing in a new 4-4-2 formation.
  • Southend’s away games average 3.11 goals per-game – the Shrimpers have kept only 2/9 clean sheets away.
  • Southend have seen 6/9 away games feature Over 2.5 Goals – 9/9 matches have produced at least 2 goals.

Back Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score (13/10 Coral)

Morecambe v Plymouth | Saturday 15:00

Morecambe

  • Morecambe have W2-D2-L9 since the start of September in League Two, conceding 2+ goals in 11/13 matches.
  • Morecambe have conceded 2+ goals in 13/18 league games this season.
  • Exclude August 2015 and August 2016 and Morecambe have W12-D11-L31 in League Two since the start of 2015/16 – a 57% loss-rate – conceding 2+ goals in 37/54 (69%) games.
  • Morecambe are averaging a league-high 17.35 shots per-game against – the next worst figure is Barnet (13.24). The Shrimps have also faced the most shots on-target.
  • Morecambe have seen their best player (Tom Barkuizen) leave last week and second-highest league scorer Jack Dunn return to Liverpool.
  • Morecambe are bottom of League Two for the first time since 2010.

Plymouth

  • Plymouth lost back-to-back games but won the shot count 30-16 in those encounters.
  • Plymouth have W19-D6-L6 in away games under Derek Adams, scoring 2+ goals in 19/31 (61%) of matches.
  • Plymouth have scored in 26/31 (84%) of away games under Derek Adams.
  • Plymouth have W7-D0-L1 in 8 away games this season, scoring 2+ in 6/8 – only 2 clubs have scored more goals away.
  • Only Luton and Blackpool are averaging more shots on-target away than Plymouth whilst only Luton, Portsmouth and Blackpool have fired in more shots away than Plymouth.
  • Away teams in League Two have won 37% of league games this season compared to a 35% win rate for home sides.

Back Plymouth to win and Over 1.5 Goals (13/10 Paddy Power)

Best Bets

Derby v Norwich – Derby to score Over 1.5 Goals (16/13 888)

Walsall v Southend – Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score (13/10 Coral)

Morecambe v Plymouth – Plymouth to win and Over 1.5 Goals (13/10 Paddy Power)

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About Author

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After starting his career in newspaper journalism, Mark soon found his way into the online betting world, forging a career in content, social media and marketing production. With a huge passion for stats, the Football League and European football, Mark’s other interests include playing rugby, following his beloved QPR and travel.

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