Correct Score Betting: Expect Burnley’s luck to run out on Monday night

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CORRECT Score guru Daniel McCulloch (@danmcc84) is back with three juicy picks this weekend from the Premier League.

Everton v Swansea | Saturday 15:00

Swansea have been so poor under Bob Bradley that I am going to forego my 1-0 Swansea, Sigurdsson to score first for one week at least. Watch that one roll in!

The Swans have conceded three goals in three of Bradley’s four games and any side that can make the Stoke pair of Allen and Adam look like Baggio and Bergkamp is going to be in serious trouble.

Given the volume of changes he has made each game, the American clearly does not know his best side. Defensively, they are missing the leadership of Ashley Williams – who will line up in the opposition side on Saturday – and offensively you wonder where the goals are coming from.

I simply cannot see them getting the better of Ronald Koeman’s men, who will be desperate to return to winning ways after their capitulation against Chelsea.

Swansea have already been the victims of this 3-1 score line on three occasions this season and I would recommend the 12/1 on a fourth occurring on Saturday.

Stoke v Bournemouth | Saturday 15:00

A couple of weeks ago I made the error of opposing Stoke to the said Swansea side and I won’t be making that mistake again. Whilst Bournemouth can cause them problems, I cannot see the Dorset side heading home with any points to show for their endeavours.

Since Mark Hughes moved to Staffordshire just over three years ago, 14 of Stoke’s 62 home games have ended with such a score line, suggesting the correct odds to be just under 7/2. A careful stake plan, however, gives you combined odds of around 5/1.

I originally simply planned to take Betfair’s 19/2 on a 2-1 win for the Britannia side, but the 13/1 available for a slightly more comfortable 2-0 victory should not be left sitting there in the ‘back’ column.

West Brom v Burnley | Monday 20:00 | Sky Sports 1

For the second time in a matter of weeks I am breaking my golden rule and betting on my own side. My reasoning is simple; Burnley’s points tally defies all the goals and points models you could wish to look at.

It was somewhat ironic, for example, that Tom Heaton should concede two goals from such few shots against Spain on Tuesday when his tally of 62 saves is 21 more than any other keeper has managed so far this season. Moreover, at the other end, their chance conversion rate does not look sustainable and I am more than willing to oppose the Lancashire side.

Over the last three seasons, no side has managed to score exactly one goal as frequently as the West Brom. They have achieved this feat in 43% of home games during this period and I would back them to do the same on Monday night.

In what is likely to be a tight game, the fact that thirteen of Albion’s last fourteen victories have been by a single-goal margin leads me to believe that this is the correct call.

Given the above, the more conservative among you may wish to also chance your arm at a 2-1 scoreline, but I don’t wish to split my stakes again so will take the 11/2 Paddy Power are offering on a 1-0 win to the home side.

Best Bets

Everton v Swansea – Everton to win 3-1 (12/1 Bet365)

Stoke v Bournemouth – Stoke to win 2-1 (19/2 Betfair)

Stoke v Bournemouth – Stoke to win 2-0 (13/1 Betfair)

West Brom v Burnley – West Brom to win 1-0 (11/2 Paddy Power)

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