BOOKINGS king Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) has focused on the Thursday night Serie A match for us.
Palermo v Udinese | Thursday 19:45 | BT Sport
Serie A action continues this Thursday evening with the battle in Sicily between Palermo and Udinese. Both clubs are hovering around the relegation zone and will be keen to collect points here.
Palermo have lost their last four home games and Udinese have won just 1/14 on the road. However, Palermo HT/FT has won 3/3 versus Udinese. That’s around 7/2 tonight if you fancy it.
The past six meetings between these two clubs have seen total cards issued of 5-8-3-6-6-8 at an average of six per match. This season Udinese average 2.44 cards per game whilst the hosts typically collect 3.11 cards. That suggests a total of 5.55 total match cards might be expected here.
Daniele Orsato gets the whistle for this battle. He averages 6.25 cards per game in Italy’s top flight this term. In career games officiating these two teams he averages 3.14 cards per game to Palermo and 2.33 per game to Udinese.
The bookies can’t make up their mind on this one. Bet365 have changed their line from 5.5 to 6.5 and now back to 5.5 again, with overs an 8/11 chance. Basically, they think there will be six cards.
If we look at the average number of cards in the past six encounters (6), average cards this season (5.55), referee career averages against these clubs (5.47) and Orsato’s average this term (6.26), it is reasonable to expect 5.82 cards in this fixture.
I’m going to back the stats here. The question is which line? Sky Bet offer 11/4 on ’55-75′ points (bringing seven yellow cards into play) whereas William Hill offering ’45-65′ at 15/8 (bringing five yellow cards into play).
Given that 8/9 Serie A matches this midweek have been ‘under’ I’m recommending the more cautious option. Back 45-65 bookings points at 15/8 with William Hill.
Palermo v Udinese – 45-65 Bookings Points (15/8 William Hill)