CARD KING Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) returns with a bookings bet from Saturday’s depleted Football League card.
Accrington v Cheltenham | Saturday 15:00
International matches have naturally captured the attention of punters this week and will continue to do so for the next few days. However, as I have a significantly lower success rate in international football than domestic games, my focus will be on League Two.
Accrington host Cheltenham in a pretty unremarkable looking fixture on Saturday afternoon. Stanley (12th) sit in relative comfort whilst their visitors from Gloucestershire occupy 22nd place.
The Robins average 18.20 bookings points per-game in league action. Hosts Accrington are one of the more ill-disciplined teams at this level, averaging 23.6 bookings points per-game.
The past six meetings between these two clubs have seen total bookings points of 20-40-40-20-40-30 – that is an average of 31.6 bookings points. However, when the games were played at the Crown Ground, the make-ups were lower at 20-20-30 – at an average of 23.3 bookings points.
The referee in this fixture is usually very lenient. Fifty-six year-old Nigel Miller is in charge and he averages 20 bookings points in 2016/17.
The man from county Durham has officiated eight games this term issuing bookings points of 0-0-50-25-55-10-0 and 20. Encouragingly, he averages just 0.66 cards to Accrington in his career and 1.00 card per-game to Cheltenham.
He covered Accrington once last season and gave zero cards in a 1-1 draw at home to Cambridge. He didn’t officiate Cheltenham Town as the played in the National League.
Miller has given zero cards in 3/8 matches this season – a repeat is a 9/1 chance here with William Hill.
However, both teams have collected cards this term so I’d adopt a more cautious approach; 63% of this referee’s 2016/17 matches have featured 25 bookings points or less. That line this week is 8/5 and did tempt me.
The probability of success though increases to 75% this season for Under 35 Bookings Points. In 2015/16, that market would have won in 22/32 of Miller’s games (69%).
I am always comfortable going under with this official. The last three head-to-head meetings at this venue all had 30 or less bookings points and so with a high probability of success, I’m recommending Under 35 Bookings Points at 8/11 with William Hill.
If you’re new to Bookings Points – a yellow card earns 10 points and a red card earns 25 points. If a player receives two yellow cards and is consequently shown a red card, he receives a total of 35 Bookings Points.
Accrington v Cheltenham – Under 35 Bookings Points (8/11 William Hill)
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