Bookings Tips | Accrington v Cheltenham | 8th October 2016


CARD KING Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) returns with a bookings bet from Saturday’s depleted Football League card.

Accrington v Cheltenham | Saturday 15:00

International matches have naturally captured the attention of punters this week and will continue to do so for the next few days. However, as I have a significantly lower success rate in international football than domestic games, my focus will be on League Two.

Accrington host Cheltenham in a pretty unremarkable looking fixture on Saturday afternoon. Stanley (12th) sit in relative comfort whilst their visitors from Gloucestershire occupy 22nd place.

The Robins average 18.20 bookings points per-game in league action. Hosts Accrington are one of the more ill-disciplined teams at this level, averaging 23.6 bookings points per-game.

The past six meetings between these two clubs have seen total bookings points of 20-40-40-20-40-30 – that is an average of 31.6 bookings points. However, when the games were played at the Crown Ground, the make-ups were lower at 20-20-30 – at an average of 23.3 bookings points.

The referee in this fixture is usually very lenient. Fifty-six year-old Nigel Miller is in charge and he averages 20 bookings points in 2016/17.

The man from county Durham has officiated eight games this term issuing bookings points of 0-0-50-25-55-10-0 and 20. Encouragingly, he averages just 0.66 cards to Accrington in his career and 1.00 card per-game to Cheltenham.

He covered Accrington once last season and gave zero cards in a 1-1 draw at home to Cambridge. He didn’t officiate Cheltenham Town as the played in the National League.

Miller has given zero cards in 3/8 matches this season – a repeat is a 9/1 chance here with William Hill.

However, both teams have collected cards this term so I’d adopt a more cautious approach; 63% of this referee’s 2016/17 matches have featured 25 bookings points or less. That line this week is 8/5 and did tempt me.

The probability of success though increases to 75% this season for Under 35 Bookings Points. In 2015/16, that market would have won in 22/32 of Miller’s games (69%).

I am always comfortable going under with this official. The last three head-to-head meetings at this venue all had 30 or less bookings points and so with a high probability of success, I’m recommending Under 35 Bookings Points at 8/11 with William Hill.

If you’re new to Bookings Points – a yellow card earns 10 points and a red card earns 25 points. If a player receives two yellow cards and is consequently shown a red card, he receives a total of 35 Bookings Points.

Best Bets

Accrington v Cheltenham – Under 35 Bookings Points (8/11 William Hill)

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About Author

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I first got interested in gambling through my cousin. He's a professional gambler and got me hooked as a teenager when you had to pay the 9% tax. Who remembers that?! These days I prefer to specialise on one market rather than spread myself too thinly. Hence my love of cards! Hopefully I can make others a few bob in the process of sharing my bets on WeLoveBetting. On a personal note I love most sports especially cricket, rugby and NFL. I support Tottenham and all things Welsh and outside of sport I enjoy reading autobiographies particularly with a glass of good wine!

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