KING of the cards Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) has found an angle to exploit in Sunday afternoon’s Serie A action in Sardnia.
Cagliari v Atalanta | Sunday 14.00
Eighteenth-placed Cagliari host mid-table Atalanta on Sunday afternoon and this presents a good opportunity for card punters.
The hosts are winless after their opening three matches and will take comfort from being back at home, where they picked up their only point of the season in a 2-2 draw with Roma.
Atalanta lost their only away match 2-1 at Sampdoria. They received five yellows and a red in that game in Genoa.
The past six meetings between these two sides have seen total card counts of 4-8-5-6-6-8 – that’s at an average of 6.17 cards-per-game. However, when the match is played in Sardinia the average increases significantly to 7.30 cards-per-game.
In those games, Atalanta have collected total cards of 4-4-5 – that is an average of 4.33 cards-per-game.
When playing at home this term, Atalanta have collected an average of just 2.00 cards-per-game. Clearly, they are a different beast away from their home.
And the Bergamo-based visitors commit 10.70 fouls in home matches versus 16 in away fixtures.
Michael Fabbri is in charge of this match and, in truth, he is a pain in the ass referee who lets a lot go unpunished.
The 32-year-old from Ravenna averaged 5.14 cards-per-game in 2015/16. In career games officiating the hosts he typically gives them just one cards-per-game. By contrast, he typically gives Atalanta three cards-per-game.
There have been three red cards in the last six meetings between these two and two of these went to Atalanta.
I want to take on Atalanta here. William Hill are offering Over 3 Cards (so 4+ to win) at 13/8 but that might be one too many with this referee so I’m backing Over 2.5 Atalanta Cards with 888 at 7/10.
Cagliari v Atalanta – Over 2.5 Atalanta Cards (7/10 888)