KING of the cards Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) has found an angle to exploit in Wednesday night's big La Liga clash from the Camp Nou.
Barcelona v Atletico Madrid | Sunday 21.00 | Sky Sports 2
Diego Someone's Atletico Madrid travel to the Camp Nou on Wednesday evening to take on a red-hot Barcelona.
Luis Enrique's troops have been in fine form and scoring plenty of goals with the headline trio of Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez and Neymar virtually unplayable.
Atleti, I'm sure though, will be encouraged by little Alaves's victory at this venue only a few weeks ago.
This fixture has been a compelling watch over the past few years and the total cards when played at the Camp Nou read as 12-8-6-9-9-8 – that is an average of 8.60 cards-per-game.
The bookies general line tonight is Over/Under 6.5 Cards with the overs around a 4/6 chance. It will probably win but there’s not much value there. The same goes for the 8/13 from SkyBet on Atletico to collect the most cards, which is 4/9 elsewhere.
In the past six meetings in Barcelona across all competitions, Atletico have collected cards numbers of 9-8-4-6-4-6 – that's an average of 6.17 cards-per-game.
Indeed, Fernando Torres was sent off in their last visit in the Champions League. In the visit before that saw Felipe Luis and Diego Godin took an early bath.
So with reds in each of their last two matches in the Camp Nou and 17 cards in total – at an average of 8.50 cards-per-game – they have some form.
David Fernandez Borbalan is in charge – the 43-year-old is vastly experienced and averaged 5.90 cards-per-game in La Liga last season. In his sole domestic game this term he showed seven cards, including a red when Real Madrid beat Osasuna.
He has shown Atletico eight reds in 30 career games officiating the Madrid outfit. He typically gives the Mattress Makers 3.36 cards-per-game.
By comparison, he typically gives Barcelona just 2.24 cards-per-game. He has sent off just three Barca players in 38 career games officiating them.
A few of you like the players to be carded market so here are the number of cards given to these players from the past six meetings in Barcelona:
4 – Mascherano, Godin, Juanfran
3 – Felipe Luis, Suarez, Gabi
Back to my recommendation and with a sky-high recent average and three reds in their last two visits, I'm backing Over 40 Atletico Madrid Bookings Points at 5/6 with Paddy Power.
You can back 50+ Bookings Points at SkyBet for 10/11 but I prefer the Paddy Power market as it brings a red card into play (eg. 45 points would win with them but not SkyBet).
Best Bets
Barcelona v Atletico Madrid – Over 40 Atletico Madrid Bookings Points (5/6 Paddy Power)
