ANYTIME NOTEBOOK magician Gavin Horsfall (@GHorsfall) delivers his expert opinion on where the value resides in the League One Top Goalscorer market.
League One | Top Goalscorer
I’m certain Nicky Ajose’s move to Charlton isn’t enough of a reason to make Swindon fifth favourites for the drop and I fancy them to out perform their odds, especially if they can keep Jon Obika (66/1 Betfred) fit for more than two minutes at a time.
Swindon won just 10% of their games when Obika was missing last year during which their average goals-per-game dipped below 1 to 0.9.
When the 25-year old did play, Swindon won nearly half their games and scored 1.6 goals-per-game, his absence for a month from mid-March probably looks a more contributory factor than we realised at the time.
Twenty-two goals in 54 appearances for the Robins, Obika is now looking for a third consecutive season where he will reach double-figures.
Millwall were an eye-catcher in the second half of last season as Neil Harris shored up a leaky defence to only lose four games after January.
Harris looks a touch vulnerable to shrewder managers but he’ll be pleased the division’s third most potent attack has stuck around this summer, for now.
Lee Gregory has already been the subject of bids from the Championship so it might be worth chancing Fred Onyedinma (100/1 William Hill) at a big price.
The 19-year old is being primed for a central role by Harris who may already be thinking about life post-Gregory. Onyedinma chasing Steve Morison knock-downs is some prospect.
*Back your Top Goalscorer each-way and you’ll receive ¼ odds pay-out should your nominated goal-getter place from second to fourth in the market*
League One Top Goalscorer – Jonathan Obika (66/1 each-way Betfred)
League One Top Goalscorer – Fred Onyedinma (100/1 each-way William Hill)