BUNDESLIGA fanatic Tom Loveys (@ValueBetMethods) is back for the new season and takes a look at the opener between Bayern and Werder for us.
Bayern Munich v Werder Bremen | Friday 19:30 | BT Sport Europe
The Bundesliga is back on Friday, so dust down your lederhosen, stock the fridge with Bratwurst and let the WLB team take you through the thrills and spills of one of the most atmospheric leagues in the world.
Bayern are a best priced 1/5 to win a fifth straight title and despite no Pep Guardiola at the helm now, it’s difficult to look past them to find a winner. Dortmund, perennial runners-up can be backed at 6/1 with Leverkusen third best at 40/1 and really, any price you like for the rest.
Darmstadt are odds on at 8/13 for the drop along with one of the promoted teams from 2.BL, Freiburg who are at 7/4.
So Bayern kick us off on Friday night, at a usual prohibitive odds, they are 1/8 to see off Werder Bremen. It’s always difficult to find a ‘value play’ on the hosts. Yes, they should win but how do you find the winning value angle?
Werder come to the Allianz sporting an awful record, their last two visits have seen 5-0 and 6-0 defeats.
Werder kicked off their season in dismal fashion in the DFB Pokal losing 2-1 to third tier Sportfreunde Lotte, whereas Bayern easily brushed aside Carl Zeiss Jena 5-0 with a Robert Lewandowski hat-trick and a goal from new man Mats Hummels.
So differing preparations and maybe an easy choice to go for a comfortable home victory, but looking on stats and the unpredictability of the opening day, I’m tempted with the Both Teams To Score option at 5/4 with Hills.
It’s overpriced in my opinion and whilst Bayern could conceivably walk this, the chance of a consolation will always be alive.
Werder away games last season saw 12/17 matches with both sides notching and highlights of last season included scoring twice against Dortmund, three against Schalke and four against Leverkusen, so ‘on their day’ they are more than capable.
Werder may have to rely on the 37-year-old legs of Claudio Pizzaro, who scored 14 last year, and in addition with the signing of Lennart Thy from cult-club St.Pauli, they do have firepower options should the Bayern defence not be on its A game.
Bayern did keep 10 clean sheets last season but proved that they can be breached at times with relegated Hannover and this year’s drop favourites, Darmstadt managing to get on the scoresheet at the Allianz.
So whilst Bayern may kick off Bundesliga 16/17 with a win – we’re hoping for Bremen to at least play a part at 5/4 for BTTS.
Fill up those Steins and enjoy the ride that is Bundesliga.
Bayern Munich v Werder Bremen – Both Teams To Score (5/4 William Hill)