KING of the cards Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) is back with a Football League Saturday pick for us.
Crewe Alexandra v Doncaster Rovers | Saturday 15:00
Crewe Alexander host third placed Doncaster Rovers at Gresty Road in League Two on Saturday afternoon and it looks an attractive fixture for cards punters.
The past five encounters between these two teams had cards of 0-1-2-1-1. That is an average of just 1.2 per match. So far this season, Crewe average one card per game and Doncaster two per match.
The well known Lee Probert gets the whistle for this match. He refereed the 2014/15 FA Cup final between Arsenal and Hull City. However, he missed the 2015/16 season due to a back injury and is now making his way back.
In career games officiating the hosts Probert has given them four cards in two matches at an average of two per game. In five games covering Donny this official has given them just two cards which is an average of 0.4 per game. This suggests that 2.4 cards might be expected with this referee.
Probert has given ten cards out in four matches so far in 2016/17 which is an average of 2.5 per game. At League Two level, however, his average drops to two cards per game this term.
There are some interesting odds available on this game. Zero cards is 10/1 with William Hill. Over the past five seasons, Probert has officiated 128 domestic matches. He has given zero cards on 16 occasions which equates to a 12.5% probability.
Under 25pts is a 9/5 shot with William Hill. Over the 128 games this would have won 59 times. That is a 46% chance. Under 35pts is 17/20 again with William Hill and that line would have won 80/128 at a success rate of 62.5%.
I think all three markets have a chance of winning but with the higher probability and more leeway I’m recommending under 35pts with William Hill at 17/20.
Crewe Alexander v Doncaster Rovers – Under 35 Bookings Points (17/20 William Hill)