THE ever-popular Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) has found two angles on the bookings markets for Sunday’s football.
There are a decent amount of games in the major European leagues on Sunday and with Spain being such a lottery at present (1/16 have been over their lines), I can’t confidently recommend a bet there.
However, two matches do catch my eye in Serie A.
Udinese v Empoli | Sunday 19.45
This match has a rich recent record of cards – there have been three reds given in the past six encounters.
The past three meetings had total card figures of 9-10-7 – that is an average of 8.67 cards-per-game.
Novice top-flight official Fabio Maresca is in charge this time around and he averages 8 cards-per-game in Serie A.
The 35-year-old from Naples averaged 7.65 cards-per-game in 2015/16 across all competitions. In 26 appearances Maresca showed 17 red cards last term.
During the opening weekend of fixtures, Udinese picked up two yellows whereas Empoli imploded collecting a red and three cautions.
The line for this particular match is high but it’s not hard to see why given the favourable referee appointment and the recent meetings between these two teams.
I’m backing Over 65 Bookings Points at 5/6 with William Hill.
If you’re new to Bookings Points – a yellow card earns 10 points and a red card earns 25 points. If a player receives two yellow cards and is consequently shown a red card, he receives a total of 35 Bookings Points.
Sampdoria v Atalanta | Sunday 19.45
These two teams are usually good for cards and there is a solid recent record of cards shown in this fixture.
The past six meetings have featured total card counts of 6-6-6-6-2-8 at an average of 5.67 cards-per-game.
Based on this week’s line then five out of six would have won.
Daniele Doveri gets the whistle and I expect him to be busy. The 38-year-old from Rome averaged 6.44 cards-per-game in 2015/16.
In career games officiating the hosts he typically gives them 3.67 cards-per-game and 2.36 cards-per-game to Atalanta – that suggests that 6.03 total cards might be expected in this fixture.
In week one Sampdoria collected four cards and Atalanta two. A repeat this week would get the job done.
I’m backing Over 5.5 Cards on Bet365‘s Asian line at 1.85. A
few of you ask me what difference the Asian line makes but where the line involves 0.5 cards (in this case 5.5) there is no difference other than you get slightly better odds.
Basically five cards or less and we lose, six or more and we win – there’s no money back option as obviously you cannot get exactly 5.5 cards.
Udinese v Empoli – Over 65 Bookings Points (5/6 William Hill)
Sampdoria v Atalanta – Over 5.5 Cards on the Asian line (1.85 Bet365)