IT’S Gavin Murphy’s (@GamePlanGavin) nap of the tournament. You can’t miss this!
Hungary v Portugal | Wednesday 17:00 | BBC
Hungary have barely laid a glove on UEFA EURO 2016 Group F opponents Portugal in ten previous meetings. Hungary’s record against Portugal is W0 D3 L7 (W0 D0 L5 in competitive games).
The nations’ only final tournament encounter came at the 1966 FIFA World Cup, Portugal prevailing 3-1 at Old Trafford in their opening game. Both teams qualified from the group, ahead of Brazil and Bulgaria.
Portugal breached the Hungary defence three times in both qualifiers for UEFA EURO 2000, the second victory taking them into the finals as the best runners-up.
A decade later, a Pepe goal gave the Iberians a 1-0 victory in Budapest, with Simão Sabrosa scoring twice in the Lisbon return (3-0) as Portugal qualified for the World Cup in South Africa. The teams have been drawn together in qualifying for the 2018 World Cup.
Quite frankly, this is my NAP of the competition so far. I cannot see anything other than a shed load of cards. These two teams had the highest number of cards in their games during the qualification phase.
Hungary ranked first with an average of 60.8 points per game. Portugal were second with 60.6. Their highest make ups were 120 and 130 points. Individually, Hungary collected 3.1 cards per game and the Portuguese 2.7. That implies around 5.8 cards might be expected in this battle.
Martin Atkinson gets the whistle and he averaged five cards per game in the qualifiers. If Portugal beat Hungary they will be guaranteed a top-two finish. A point for Hungary would be enough to see them progress.
All or nothing then pretty much and I’m convinced tempers will flare. Great chance of a late red card in this one I believe.
In Euro 2012 in the final group stage matches 2/8 had 8+ cards. In Euro 2008 it was 3/8. This looks a strong candidate for a high card make up this time around. I’m backing over 45pts with William Hill at 11/10. I felt sure the line would be 5.5 cards so this is an incredible price!
Portugal v Hungary – Over 45 Bookings Points (11/10 William Hill)